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MNI RBA Preview - August 2023: Tight Call, Pause After Q2 Close To Forecasts

RBA
  • The RBA meets on August 1 and is expected to discuss leaving rates at 4.1% or increase them by 25bp. We expect at the margin that the RBA will keep rates at 4.1% with the tightening bias retained but it is another very close call.
  • We think that the new information in the last month is unlikely to change the central bank’s forecasts or view materially, and as such the July pause should be extended.
  • There will also be references to the updated forecasts, which will be published in detail on Friday. Currently a post-meeting speech is not scheduled.
  • The August decision is likely to be “finely balanced” and if the Board pauses again, it is unlikely to mean that the tightening cycle is finished.
  • See full preview here.
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