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MNI RBA Preview - June 2023:  Close Call, Not “If” But “When”

RBA
  • The RBA remains very data dependent and the more moderate data over the last month gives it the opportunity to “watch and wait” and assess another month’s data including Q1 national accounts. Given this and that the central bank says that policy is restrictive and working, we expect rates to be held at 3.85% in June, but the meeting is “live” and around a third of analysts expect a 25bp hike and the market is sitting on the fence.
  • The tightening bias is likely to be retained. Importantly, a pause won’t mean the tightening cycle is over. it is not a matter of “if” they hike further but “when”.
  • The June, July and August meetings are all "live" with a particularly high probability of a rate hike on August 1 following the Q2 CPI data.
  • See full preview here.
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