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MNI RBA Preview - March 2023: 25bp In March, Guidance The Focus

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • As the RBA is widely expected to hike rates 25bp to 3.6% at its March 7 meeting, the focus is likely to be on the statement and any changes to the forward guidance. There may be a tempering of February's more hawkish language given the softer data since that decision but while inflation remains "too high", the message in the inflation phrases in the statement will probably be unchanged. But the RBA is likely to keep its options open.
  • According to RBA-dated OIS, the market is pricing a 92% chance of a rate hike on Tuesday. Beyond the March meeting, however, the market is less certain with a 72% chance of a 25bp hike in April priced and a cumulative 33bp of tightening priced by May.
  • The recent shift in the data is likely to make post-March RBA decisions even more dependent on the “incoming data”.

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