-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI SOURCES: ECB May Keep December End For QE
--The ECB might not finally commit to ending bond purchases in December just yet
LONDON (MNI) - The European Central Bank is set to confirm it will wind
down its asset purchase programme in October at its Governing Council meeting
Sept. 13, but might hold off a final commitment to end it in December, monetary
policy sources told MNI.
In introductory statements to his press conferences in June and July, ECB
President Mario Draghi said the central bank anticipates reducing the pace of
its APP to EUR15 bn a month from October, and that it would cease after
December. The word "anticipates" may now move to the last part of that sentence,
before "that it would cease", allowing the ECB some flexibility in case of a
sudden economic downdraught, one source said.
While governors still expect the APP to end in December, some of them may
want to wait until the ECB's December macroeconomic projections to finally sign
off on its conclusion, the source said.
Another source agreed, saying that "anticipated" could remain in the clause
about ending APP as wiggle room, although in the absence of some extraordinary
shock the programme was almost certain to draw to a conclusion at the end of the
year. A third, though, indicated that some on the Governing Council were more
impatient, telling MNI that there are governors "of the opinion that next week
it's necessary to have a final formal decision on the purchase programme."
--"THROUGH THE SUMMER"
Draghi has also said that the bank expects to keep interest rates at their
present levels "at least through the summer of 2019." There has been no
discussion within the Governing Council on making this formulation more precise,
the third source said, adding: "Nobody knows exactly what it means."
Another source said "through the summer" would be compatible with a Council
discussion of a rate hike in June or July, followed by an increase in the
deposit rate in September, and in the other two key rates the following month.
In minutes of the ECB's July meeting, Council members said the guidance had been
"effective in aligning market views about the future evolution of policy rates."
The latest round of the ECB's quarterly macroeconomic projections are due
in September and will show little change from June, one of the sources said,
adding that the short-term inflation outlook might be slightly higher and growth
slightly lower, but the key medium-term inflation outlook should remain the
same.
--REINVESTMENT
It was unclear, according to two sources, whether the Governing Council
would be ready to provide any guidance as to how the ECB will reinvest proceeds
of its maturing bonds after the end of quantitative easing. It is possible that
none will be provided for some months, one source said.
Trade remains prominent among risks being monitored by the ECB, and, while
the immediate danger to the Eurozone economy from a rise in U.S. tariffs seems
to have moderated since European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker met
President Donald Trump in July, the threat will remain until a final deal is
reached, one of the sources said.
The ECB is also keeping an eye on Italy, whose 10-year bond yield has eased
from year highs amid investor concern that Rome could violate EU rules on budget
deficits. The ECB is concerned by what it perceives as Italian leaders' growing
tendency to blame it for their country's economic failings, particularly since
the death of more than 30 people in a bridge collapse in Genoa in August, but it
will continue to set policy for the whole Eurozone, sources said.
--MNI London Bureau; +44208-865-3829; email: Jason.Webb@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2223; email: david.robinson@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$E$$$,M$X$$$,MT$$$$,MX$$$$,M$$EC$]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.