MNI TRANSCRIPT: Powell on Groups of Opinions

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following is the portion of a transcript from

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference after the FOMC meeting

Wednesday:

     Q: I was struck by the sort of, anchored median federal funds rate through

2020 and that, in comparison to the fact that you have sort of three, very

discrete groups of opinions. Around where the funds rate is heading and I wonder

-- is it fair to say that those opinions have become firmer in their conviction

and that it's going to take some real material change in the outlook now for

that to move in either direction.

     A: You're asking specifically about 2020?

     Q: Well, the fact that the federal funds rate is seen as not moving through

2020 suggests these opinions are pretty well-accurate right now in those groups.

     A: You know... honestly, I think it's hardened expectations about where

rate policies will be a year from now. The closer you get to the current day,

the more kind of things you can have. Even then... knowing what the data will

say and the, and... the way geopolitical events and other events are going to

evolve in the next 90 days and implications of that in the economy, I'd say

there's a lot of uncertainty around that. If you look at 2020, I think the use

of this is individual participants write down their forecast. It gives you a

sense of how people are thinking about the likely path of the economy and... the

appropriate path for monetary policy in that individual person's thinking and I

think that's a good thing to know. I'd be reluctant to look at it as hardened

views or a prediction, really.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: brooke.migdon@marketnews.com

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