MNI: UK Analysis: Oct Retail Sales Fall Y/Y; Q3 Revised Up>

-UK October total sales +0.3% m/m, -0.3% y/y

-UK Q3 Retail sales +0.7% q/q from +0.6% previous

-UK October retail prices +3.1% y/y vs +3.3% in Sept

By Laurie Laird and Les Commons

     LONDON (MNI) - Retail activity rose modestly in October, but 

declined on an annual basis for the first time in over four years, while 

third quarter sales volumes were revised slightly higher.  

     Retail sales volumes rose by 0.3% between September and October. On 

an annual basis, retail sales decreased by 0.3%, the first decline since 

March of 2013. 

     Sales in the "Other Stores" category jumped by 3.1% between 

September and October, adding 0.4 percentage points to total growth, 

lifting the monthly outturn into positive territory. Large purchases at 

auction houses accounted for much of the strength, according to a 

National Statistics official, while sales at computer goods stores were 

also robust. 

     September sales were stronger than originally reported, declining 

by a revised 0.7% from September and rising by 1.3% over September of 

2016, compared to the initial estimate of down 0.8% on the month, and an 

annual gain of 1.2%. 

     That takes third quarter sales 0.7% above the level of the third 

quarter, above the originally-reported 0.6% gain, leaving the sector 

poised to add 0.04 percentage points to gross domestic product. Retail 

sales comprise 5.4 percent of GDP after the latest revisions to the 

National Accounts, down from 5.6% previously. 

     Retail sales values have outstripped the growth in volumes, 

suggesting that an increase in retail prices may be dampening activity, 

according to the official statistician. 

     The implied price deflator rose by 3.1% in the year to October, the 

twelfth straight increase, but slightly below the 3.3% jump recorded in 

September.  

     Fuel prices accounted for much of the rise in retail inflation, but 

excluding fuel, the implied deflator still jumped by 3.0%, matching the 

more-than-five-year high recorded in September. 

     Excluding fuel, sales rose by 0.1% last month, falling by 0.3% 

compared with October of 2016. 

     September non-fuel sales were a bit stronger than originally 

reported, falling by a revised 0.6% from August and rising by 1.6% over 

September of 2016. Excluding fuel, sales growth was originally reported 

as down 0.7% in September, and 1.6% above the same month of 2016.  

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]