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MNI UK DATA SURVEY: Feb Services PMI, Jan UK IOP, Mfg, Trade

MNI (London)
By Jai Lakhani
     LONDON (MNI) - UK output may have picked up in February after weak start to
the year -- reflected in each of the three sector PMIs released in January. The
aggregate position of PMIs indicated quarterly GDP growth of 0.3% in Q1, a tenth
of a percentage point below the 0.4% outturn in Q4, according to an IHS Markit
     Analysts see the services PMI Index is rising to 53.5, up 0.5 from its
January print of 53.0, which was the lowest level for 16 months. A pick-up of
0.5 points would suggest a modest, not significant, recovery in a sector which
is crucial to the UK's aggregate production.
Date Out              05-Mar
Median                  53.5
Forecast High           54.0
Forecast Low            53.2
Standard Deviation       0.3
Count                      6
Prior                   53.0
Credit Suisse           54.0
Commerzbank             53.2
Investec                53.5
Nomura                  53.5
Oxford Econ             53.5
UniCredit               53.7
     Next week will also give a first look official data reflecting output in
2018. Analysts expect a recovery in industrial production with estimates of m/m
growth pencilled in at 1.5% versus a prior drop of -1.3%.
     Against that, manufacturing output appears to be continuing its expansion,
with the y/y rate expected to rise to 2.8% from 1.4% previously. It is worth
noting, however, that the m/m estimate at 0.2% is a touch lower from the prior
0.3% result. 
     The trade balance provides some optimism with analysts estimating a
significant reduction in the total trade balance deficit from stg4.9bn to
                       Jan         Jan            Jan            Jan         Dec
                Industrial  Industrial  Manufacturing  Manufacturing       Total
                Production  Production         Output         Output     balance
                     % m/m       % oya          % m/m          % oya      stg bn
Date Out            09-Mar      09-Mar         09-Mar         09-Mar      09-Mar
Median                 1.5         2.4            0.2            2.8        -2.5
Forecast High          2.0         2.7            0.4            3.1        -2.4
Forecast Low           0.8         2.0            0.2            2.8        -3.5
Deviation              0.4         0.4            0.1            0.2         0.6
Count                    6           3              4              3           3
Prior                 -1.3         0.0            0.3            1.4        -4.9
Credit Suisse          0.8         N/A            N/A            N/A         N/A
Commerzbank            1.5         N/A            N/A            N/A         N/A
Investec               1.0         2.7            0.2            2.8        -3.5
Nomura                 2.0         2.4            0.2            2.8         N/A
Oxford Econ            1.6         2.0            0.4            3.1        -2.4
UniCredit              1.5         N/A            0.2            N/A        -2.5
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email:
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 |

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