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Free AccessMNI UK DATA SURVEY: Feb Services PMI, Jan UK IOP, Mfg, Trade
By Jai Lakhani
LONDON (MNI) - UK output may have picked up in February after weak start to
the year -- reflected in each of the three sector PMIs released in January. The
aggregate position of PMIs indicated quarterly GDP growth of 0.3% in Q1, a tenth
of a percentage point below the 0.4% outturn in Q4, according to an IHS Markit
survey.
Analysts see the services PMI Index is rising to 53.5, up 0.5 from its
January print of 53.0, which was the lowest level for 16 months. A pick-up of
0.5 points would suggest a modest, not significant, recovery in a sector which
is crucial to the UK's aggregate production.
----------------------------
Feb
Services
PMI
Index
Date Out 05-Mar
Median 53.5
Forecast High 54.0
Forecast Low 53.2
Standard Deviation 0.3
Count 6
Prior 53.0
Credit Suisse 54.0
Commerzbank 53.2
Investec 53.5
Nomura 53.5
Oxford Econ 53.5
UniCredit 53.7
Next week will also give a first look official data reflecting output in
2018. Analysts expect a recovery in industrial production with estimates of m/m
growth pencilled in at 1.5% versus a prior drop of -1.3%.
Against that, manufacturing output appears to be continuing its expansion,
with the y/y rate expected to rise to 2.8% from 1.4% previously. It is worth
noting, however, that the m/m estimate at 0.2% is a touch lower from the prior
0.3% result.
The trade balance provides some optimism with analysts estimating a
significant reduction in the total trade balance deficit from stg4.9bn to
stg2.5bn.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Jan Jan Jan Dec
Industrial Industrial Manufacturing Manufacturing Total
Trade
Production Production Output Output balance
% m/m % oya % m/m % oya stg bn
Date Out 09-Mar 09-Mar 09-Mar 09-Mar 09-Mar
Median 1.5 2.4 0.2 2.8 -2.5
Forecast High 2.0 2.7 0.4 3.1 -2.4
Forecast Low 0.8 2.0 0.2 2.8 -3.5
Standard
Deviation 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.6
Count 6 3 4 3 3
Prior -1.3 0.0 0.3 1.4 -4.9
Credit Suisse 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Commerzbank 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Investec 1.0 2.7 0.2 2.8 -3.5
Nomura 2.0 2.4 0.2 2.8 N/A
Oxford Econ 1.6 2.0 0.4 3.1 -2.4
UniCredit 1.5 N/A 0.2 N/A -2.5
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]
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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.