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MNI UK Inflation and Labour Preview - October 2024 Release

It’s another month where both UK inflation data is due for release on Wednesday following labour market data on Tuesday.
HomepageCEEMEAUKGlobalStoryEmployment InsightInflation InsightGlobal IssuanceGlobal Issuance - UKMarketsRegion
MNI (LONDON)
  • It’s another month where both of the biggest UK data releases coincide with inflation data is due for release on Wednesday following labour market data on Tuesday.
  • The MPC will watch the data closely – particularly following Governor Bailey’s comments that the BOE could be “a bit more activist” if inflation good news continues.
  • The August print was a bit softer than the BOE’s forecast (again), particularly for services prices (headline 2.22%Y/Y vs BOE 2.37%Y/Y; services 5.56%Y/Y vs BOE 5.84%Y/Y). However, it is expected the inflation falls by 3-4 tenths to 1.8-1.9%Y/Y on a headline basis (BOE 2.10%Y/Y), with some analysts looking for larger falls to 1.7%Y/Y. This will largely be driven by petrol prices, air fares and other services prices.
  • We continue to think that the most important part of the labour market report is the private regular wage growth. This fell to 4.95%Y/Y in the 3-months to July (rounding down to 4.9%). Most analyst previews that we have read look for it to fall to 4.8%Y/Y in the 3-months to August (to 1dp).

For the full preview see: UK_Data_Preview_2024_10_Release.pdf

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MNI (LONDON)
  • It’s another month where both of the biggest UK data releases coincide with inflation data is due for release on Wednesday following labour market data on Tuesday.
  • The MPC will watch the data closely – particularly following Governor Bailey’s comments that the BOE could be “a bit more activist” if inflation good news continues.
  • The August print was a bit softer than the BOE’s forecast (again), particularly for services prices (headline 2.22%Y/Y vs BOE 2.37%Y/Y; services 5.56%Y/Y vs BOE 5.84%Y/Y). However, it is expected the inflation falls by 3-4 tenths to 1.8-1.9%Y/Y on a headline basis (BOE 2.10%Y/Y), with some analysts looking for larger falls to 1.7%Y/Y. This will largely be driven by petrol prices, air fares and other services prices.
  • We continue to think that the most important part of the labour market report is the private regular wage growth. This fell to 4.95%Y/Y in the 3-months to July (rounding down to 4.9%). Most analyst previews that we have read look for it to fall to 4.8%Y/Y in the 3-months to August (to 1dp).

For the full preview see: UK_Data_Preview_2024_10_Release.pdf