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MNI US CPI Preview: Strong Core On Smaller Autos Drag


Consensus has core inflation firming to +0.4% M/M from the +0.32% M/M in March, driven by a smaller decline or possibly a rise in used autos after sliding nearly 4%.

  • Headline is seen weaker at +0.2% M/M as large declines in gasoline weigh on energy whilst food inflation maintains its recent strong pace.
  • FOMC consensus appears increasingly set on 2x50bp hikes in Jun/Jul but implications further along the rate path will depend on the usual breadth of inflationary pressure and what happens to stickier rent components.
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