MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: Advance 1st Qtr GDP Seen Up 2.0%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - First quarter GDP is expected to be up 2.0%, 

weaker than the 2.9% pace in the previous quarter, with the key factor 

being much slower PCE growth as the retail sales data have been 

incredibly soft in recent months. Stronger capital spending and 

inventory investment should provide some offset. First quarter GDP 

growth is typically softer than the fourth quarter due to residual 

seasonality. The chain price index is expected to rise 2.4% in the first 

quarter after a 2.3% fourth quarter gain. 

     Analysts overestimated advance GDP in the fourth quarter after an 

underestimate in the previous quarter. Missing data for the third month 

of the quarter, in this case March, is always a risk, though the advance 

estimates of trade and retail and wholesale inventories lessen that 

risk. 

                                      Final   Final

                                      Growth  Final   Median less

                                       Rate:   Sales:  actual advance:

Forecast:                       4Q-17    2.9      3.4   4Q-17    0.4

 Median               2.0       3Q-17    3.2      2.4   3Q-17   -0.3

 Range High           2.8       2Q-17    3.1      2.9   2Q-17    0.1

 Range Low            1.6       1Q-17    1.4      2.6   1Q-17    0.5 

                                                                            1Q avg/ 

                                                                            4Q avg 

                                                                             % chg

                             Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18 Ann Rate

Indices:

  BLS Agg Hours               107.8   108.3   108.5   108.3   108.9   109.0   2.0

  Ind. Production             104.8   105.3   105.8   105.6   106.6   107.2   4.5

$ blns unless otherwise noted:

  Real PCE**                11982.7 12042.4 12080.5 12052.8 12054.2 12053.5   0.6

  Total Retail Sls            489.5   493.2   492.9   492.2   491.8   494.6   0.8

  Non-MV Retail Sls           386.7   391.4   391.4   391.6   392.5   393.3   2.7

  Mtr Veh Retail Sls          102.8   101.7   101.6   100.6    99.3   101.3  -6.2

  Control Retail Sls          258.0   261.2   260.3   260.3   260.4   261.3   1.2

  Civ Cap Shipments            73.1    74.5    74.4    74.4    75.2    76.9   8.2

  Civ Cap Shipms ex Air        66.5    66.6    67.1    67.1    67.8    67.3   4.1

  Bus. Invs**                1403.2  1422.8  1429.5  1425.0  1430.4  1427.7   2.6

 Constr. Spending**          1237.6  1252.1  1272.6  1272.2  1273.1  1272.6   6.0

  Priv Residential Cons**     518.1   524.4   532.5   532.9   533.4   533.1   6.3

  Priv Nonresidential Cons    430.7   438.2   449.5   441.9   448.6   445.2   5.3

  Public Construction**       288.8   289.5   290.6   297.4   291.1   294.3   6.5

 Goods Gap (2009 $)**          65.5    66.5    68.5    70.0    69.1    69.5  17.3

  Goods Exports (2009 $)**    125.0   128.2   131.2   126.9   129.4   128.1   0.1

  Goods Imports (2009 $)**    190.5   194.6   199.7   196.8   198.5   197.7   5.8

**In cases where quarterly data are not complete,

the average of the first two months of the quarter is

substituted for the third month.

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]