MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: Advance 3rd Qtr GDP Seen Up 2.7%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Analysts expected GDP to rise 2.7% in the 

advance estimate for the third quarter, only slightly below the 3.1% 

increase in the second quarter. Analysts will watch closely to see the 

impact of the hurricanes in August and September. The key drivers are 

expected to be inventories, business investment and net export gap, 

offset by softer residential investment, with uncertainty on impact of 

consumer and government spending. The chain price index is forecast to 

rise 1.8% after a 1.0% gain in the second quarter.   

     Analysts overestimated advance GDP in the each of the previous 

quarters, but in the case of the second quarter, that overestimate was 

offset by later upward revisions. Missing data for the third month of 

the quarter, in this case September, is always a risk, though the 

advance estimates of trade and retail and wholesale inventories lessen 

that risk. 

                                            Final   Final

                                            Growth  Final   Median less

                                             Rate:   Sales:  actual advance:

Forecast:                             2Q-17     3.1      2.9   2Q-17    0.1

 Median               2.7             1Q-17     1.4      2.6   1Q-17    0.5

 Range High           3.3             4Q-16     2.1      1.1   4Q-16    0.2

 Range Low            1.9             3Q-16     3.5      3.0   3Q-16   -0.2

                                                                            3Q avg/

                                                                            2Q avg

                                                                             % chg

                             Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17 Ann Rate

Indices:

  BLS Agg Hours               107.1   106.9   107.4   107.2   107.4   107.3    0.6

  Ind. Production             105.0   105.0   105.2   105.1   104.3   104.6   -1.5

$ blns unless otherwise noted:

  Real PCE**                11827.4 11859.8 11871.6 11898.9 11890.4  11894.7   1.4

  Total Retail Sls            474.5   474.8   474.5   476.8   476.5    483.9   3.8

  Non-MV Retail Sls           377.6   376.8   376.0   378.0   379.8    383.8   4.1

  Mtr Veh Retail Sls           96.9    98.0    98.4    98.7    96.6    100.1   2.8

  Civ Cap Shipments            69.9    70.6    71.2    72.6    71.8     73.5  12.6

  Civ Cap Shipms ex Air        62.7    62.9    63.3    63.9    64.7     65.1  10.6

  Bus. Invs**                1854.6  1860.4  1869.4  1875.9  1889.0   1882.4   4.6

 Constr. Spending**          1217.7  1236.7  1226.4  1212.3  1218.3   1215.3  -3.7

  Priv Residential Cons**     507.8   511.4   517.7   518.6   520.9    519.8   5.9

  Priv Nonresidential Cons    434.8   443.1   438.0   432.0   433.9    432.9  -5.1

  Public Construction**       275.1   282.2   270.7   261.7   263.5    262.6 -18.0

 Goods Gap (2009 $)**          63.7    62.8    60.8    61.8    61.8     61.8  -4.1

  Goods Exports (2009 $)**    123.7   124.9   127.1   126.3   125.2    125.7   1.6

  Goods Imports (2009 $)**    187.4   187.7   187.9   188.1   187.0    187.5  -0.3

**In cases where quarterly data are not complete,

the average of the first two months of the quarter is

substituted for the third month.

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]