MNI:US Data Forecast Focus:January ISM Mfg Index Seen At 58.8>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The ISM manufacturing index is expected to 

decline to a reading of 58.8 in January after rising to 59.3 in December 

after annual revisions, but still indicate strength. Regional conditions 

data have suggested a slowdown in growth, but the flash Markit estimate 

ticked up slightly to 55.5 from 55.1 in the previous month. 

     Analysts have underestimated ISM in four of the last five months 

and six of the last eight months, so an upside surprise is possible. 

Recent January misses have been tilted toward overestimates, but going 

back further underestimates were more frequent. 

Forecast:                Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18

 Median                    56.6    58.0    59.5    58.0    58.0    58.8

 Range High                56.0    59.0    61.0    58.7    60.3    60.0

 Range Low                 57.5    57.0    58.0    57.0    56.5    57.7

Actual result              58.8    60.8    58.7    58.2    59.7    #N/A

 vs median forecast        -2.2    -2.8     0.8    -0.2    -1.7    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Jan-12  Jan-13  Jan-14  Jan-15  Jan-16  Jan-17

 Median                    54.5    51.0    56.0    55.0    48.3    55.0

 Range High                56.0    52.0    57.0    56.5    49.3    56.0

 Range Low                 53.5    49.5    55.3    54.0    48.0    54.7

Actual result              54.1    53.1    51.3    53.5    48.2    56.0

 vs median forecast         0.4    -2.1     4.7     1.5     0.1    -1.0

                         Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18

 MNI Chicago               59.5    64.3    65.4    65.6    67.8    65.7

 Phila. Fed Index          22.1    25.8    28.8    24.3    27.9    22.2

 Empire State Index        24.2    23.8    28.1    20.9    19.6    17.7

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]