MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: November Indust Prod Seen +0.5%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to rise by 

0.5% in November after a 0.1% rise in October. Factory payrolls rose by 

27,000 in November, but auto production jobs fell by 1,000 and the 

factory workweek was unchanged at 40.8 hours. The ISM production index 

rose to 60.6 in the current month from 59.9 in the previous month. 

Utilities production is expected to rebound modestly in the month after 

a 0.5% decline in October, while mining production is forecast to return 

to their increasing trend after two straight decline, though falling oil 

prices are a downside risk. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 

78.7% from 78.4% in October.  

     Analysts correctly estimated industrial production in October, but 

understimated capacity utilization. Historical data point to a strong 

chance of an overestimate for the November data. 

Industrial Production:    Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18

Forecast:

 Median                      0.5     0.4     0.4     0.2     0.1     0.5

 High                        0.7     0.7     0.7     0.6     0.3     0.7

 Low                         0.4     0.2    -0.3     0.1    -0.4     0.3

Actual result                0.6     0.1     0.4     0.3     0.1    #N/A

 Median-Actual              -0.1     0.3     0.0    -0.1     0.0    #N/A

Historical Comparison:    Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16  Nov-17

 Median                      0.2     0.6     0.6    -0.3    -0.3     0.3

 High                        0.7     0.9     1.2    -0.1     0.1     0.8

 Low                        -1.1     0.2     0.5    -0.6    -0.7     0.0

Actual result                1.1     1.1     1.3    -0.6    -0.4     0.2

 Median-Actual              -0.9    -0.5    -0.7     0.3     0.1     0.1

Capacity Utilization:     Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18

Forecast:

 Median                     78.2    78.2    78.3    78.2    78.1    78.7

 High                       78.4    78.5    78.5    78.3    78.3    78.8

 Low                        78.1    78.0    78.1    78.0    77.9    78.5

Actual result               78.0    78.1    78.1    78.1    78.4    #N/A

 Median-Actual               0.2     0.1     0.2     0.1    -0.3    #N/A

Historical Comparison:    Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16  Nov-17

 Median                     78.0    78.4    79.4    77.3    75.0    77.2

 High                       78.3    78.6    79.6    77.5    75.5    77.5

 Low                        76.8    78.2    79.2    77.0    74.8    77.1

Actual result               78.4    79.0    80.1    77.0    75.0    77.1

 Median-Actual              -0.4    -0.6    -0.7     0.3     0.0     0.1

                          Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18

NA-Made Vehicle Sales Ex.   10.3     9.9    10.1    10.2    10.1     9.8

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg      0.4     0.2    -0.2    -0.1     0.2     0.2

Factory Jobs (000's)          21      22      11      19      26      27

 Auto Prod Jobs (000's)        5      -1       3       1       6      -1

Mining Jobs (000's)            9      -1       8       4       3      -2

Levels:

  ISM Mfg PMI               60.2    58.1    61.3    59.8    57.7    59.3

  ISM Mfg Production        62.3    58.5    63.3    63.9    59.9    60.6

  Phila. Fed Index          19.9    25.7    11.9    22.9    22.2    12.9

  Empire State Index        25.0    22.6    25.6    19.0    21.1    23.3

  Chicago PMI               64.1    65.5    63.6    60.4    58.4    66.4

  Factory Workweek          41.0    41.0    40.9    40.8    40.8    40.8

  Factory Overtime           3.5     3.5     3.5     3.5     3.5     3.5

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]