MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: October Indust Prod Seen +0.1%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to hold steady 

in October after a 0.3% gain in September. The impacts of Hurricane 

Michael may not center on mining production, as they have with past 

hurricanes, but rather on weaker readings for the manufacturing and 

utilities portions of the report. Factory payrolls rose by 32,000 in 

October, while auto production jobs rose by 7,000. However, the factory 

workweek was shorter at 40.8 hours, down slightly from 40.9 hours in 

September. The ISM production index dipped to 59.9 in the current month 

from 63.9 in the previous month. Utilities production is expected remain 

nearly steady for a second straight month, though warmer-than-usual 

temperatures add some upside risk. Mining production is expected to 

continue its string of gains. Capacity utilization is forecast to stay 

at 78.1%. 

     Analysts underestimated industrial production in September, but 

only slightly. Historical data point to a strong chance of an 

overestimate for the October data, especially if hurricane-related 

impacts come into play. 

Industrial Production:    May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18

Forecast:

 Median                      0.2     0.5     0.4     0.4     0.2     0.1

 High                        0.5     0.7     0.7     0.7     0.6     0.3

 Low                        -0.6     0.4     0.2    -0.3     0.1    -0.4

Actual result               -0.1     0.6     0.1     0.4     0.3    #N/A

 Median-Actual               0.3    -0.1     0.3     0.0    -0.1    #N/A

Historical Comparison:    Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16  Oct-17

 Median                      0.1     0.2     0.2    -0.1     0.2     0.5

 High                        0.4     0.5     0.4     0.2     0.3     1.0

 Low                        -0.3    -0.2     0.0    -0.5     0.0     0.3

Actual result               -0.4    -0.1    -0.1    -0.2     0.0     0.9

 Median-Actual               0.5     0.3     0.3     0.1     0.2    -0.4

Capacity Utilization:     May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18

Forecast:

 Median                     78.0    78.2    78.2    78.3    78.2    78.1

 High                       78.2    78.4    78.5    78.5    78.3    78.3

 Low                        77.4    78.1    78.0    78.1    78.0    77.9

Actual result               77.9    78.0    78.1    78.1    78.1    #N/A

 Median-Actual               0.1     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.1    #N/A

Historical Comparison:    Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16  Oct-17

 Median                     78.3    78.3    79.3    77.4    75.4    76.3

 High                       78.5    78.6    79.6    77.6    75.5    76.9

 Low                        78.1    78.0    79.2    77.0    75.3    76.2

Actual result               77.8    78.1    78.9    77.5    75.3    77.0

 Median-Actual               0.5     0.2     0.4    -0.1     0.1    -0.7

                          May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18

NA-Made Vehicle Sales Ex.    9.9    10.3     9.9    10.1    10.2    10.1

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg     -0.1     0.4     0.2    -0.2     0.1     0.0

Factory Jobs (000's)          23      21      22      11      18      32

 Auto Prod Jobs (000's)       -7       5      -1       3       1       7

Mining Jobs (000's)            3       9      -1       8       5       5

Levels:

  ISM Mfg PMI               58.7    60.2    58.1    61.3    59.8    57.7

  ISM Mfg Production        61.5    62.3    58.5    63.3    63.9    59.9

  Phila. Fed Index          34.4    19.9    25.7    11.9    22.9    22.2

  Empire State Index        20.1    25.0    22.6    25.6    19.0    21.1

  Chicago PMI               62.7    64.1    65.5    63.6    60.4    58.4

  Factory Workweek          40.8    41.0    41.0    40.9    40.9    40.8

  Factory Overtime           3.4     3.5     3.5     3.5     3.5     3.5

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]