MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: October ISM Mfg Index Seen At 59.5>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall 

to a reading of 59.5 in October after rising to a recent peak of 60.8 in 

September despite the hurricanes that month. Regional conditions have 

suggested stronger growth, with particular strength seen in the MNI 

Chicago report. 

     Analysts underestimated the headline ISM index again in September, 

a common theme over the last year. Recent October data have also tilted 

toward underestimates since 2009, with seven low misses in the last 

eight years. 

Forecast:                May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17

 Median                    54.4    55.5    56.3    56.6    58.0    59.5

 Range High                55.6    56.8    57.5    56.0    59.0    61.0

 Range Low                 53.8    54.5    55.0    57.5    57.0    58.0

Actual result              54.9    57.8    56.3    58.8    60.8    #N/A

 vs median forecast        -0.5    -2.3     0.0    -2.2    -2.8    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Oct-11  Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16

 Median                    52.0    51.4    55.2    56.3    50.0    51.8

 Range High                53.7    52.5    56.4    57.5    51.0    53.0

 Range Low                 51.0    50.0    54.0    55.0    49.4    50.6

Actual result              50.8    51.7    56.4    59.0    50.1    51.9

 vs median forecast         1.2    -0.3    -1.2    -2.7    -0.1    -0.1

                         May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17

 MNI Chicago               59.4    65.7    58.9    58.9    65.2    66.2

 Phila. Fed Index          38.8    27.6    19.5    18.9    23.8    27.9

 Empire State Index        -1.0    19.8     9.8    25.2    24.4    30.2

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]