MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: Sept CPI Seen +0.6% On Energy>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise 0.6% in September 

following a 0.4% energy-related rise in August. Analysts expect energy 

prices to move even higher after August's 2.8% surge, as the hurricanes 

impact, particularly on gasoline, continued. The core CPI is forecast to 

rise 0.2% for a second straight month. 

     Analysts slightly underestimated overall CPI in August, but 

correctly estimated core CPI. Misses in September have been rare for 

overall CPI, but are generlly tilted to the high side for core CPI, 

with overestimates in six of the last seven months.

                        Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17

Overall CPI Forecast:

 Median                    0.2     0.0     0.0     0.2     0.3     0.6

 Range High                0.3     0.0     0.2     0.2     0.4     0.7

 Range Low                 0.2    -0.5     0.0     0.1     0.2     0.5

Actual result              0.2    -0.1     0.0     0.1     0.4    #N/A

 vs median forecast        0.0     0.1     0.0     0.1    -0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:  Sep-11  Sep-12  Sep-13  Sep-14  Sep-15  Sep-16

 Median                    0.3     0.5     0.2     0.1    -0.2     0.3

 Range High                0.4     0.6     0.2     0.1    -0.1     0.4

 Range Low                 0.2     0.2     0.1    -0.2    -0.3     0.2

Actual result              0.3     0.6     0.2     0.1    -0.2     0.3

 vs median forecast        0.0    -0.1     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0

                        Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17

Core CPI Forecast:

 Median                    0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                0.3     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range Low                 0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result              0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2    #N/A

 vs median forecast        0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:  Sep-11  Sep-12  Sep-13  Sep-14  Sep-15  Sep-16

 Median                    0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2

 Range High                0.2     0.5     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range Low                -0.1     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0     0.1

Actual result              0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.1

 vs median forecast        0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1    -0.1     0.1

Change in:

                                    May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17

AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded ($/gal)  2.340   2.329   2.260   2.351   2.661

  mo/mo pct change                    #N/A    -0.5    -3.0     4.0    13.2

ISM Mfg Index Price Index             60.5    55.0    62.0    62.0    71.5

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index          49.2    52.1    55.7    57.9    66.3

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]