MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: Sept Final Dmd PPI Seen +0.4%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.4% in 

September after softer-than-expected readings in August. The impact of 

the hurricanes should again be seen in energy prices, particularly 

gasoline prices, while food prices are expected to rebound after a 

substantial 1.3% drop in August. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI 

is forecast to post a 0.2% gain after a below-expectation 0.1% increase 

in the previous month. 

     Analysts overestimated both overall and core final demand PPI in 

July and August, with weak final demand services prices the common 

theme. The misses in the last 10 September releases have been tilted 

toward the low side, with three overestimates and six underestimates. In 

contrast, forecasts for core PPI have been more balances, with four 

overestimates and three underestimates in the last 10 years.  

                          Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17

Overall PPI Forecast:

 Median                      0.2     0.0     0.0     0.2     0.3     0.4

 Range High                  0.4     0.5     0.1     0.3     0.4     0.6

 Range Low                   0.1    -0.3    -0.1     0.0     0.1     0.2

Actual result                0.5     0.0     0.1    -0.1     0.2    #N/A

 vs median forecast         -0.3     0.0    -0.1     0.3     0.1    #N/A

Historical Comparison     Sep-11  Sep-12  Sep-13  Sep-14  Sep-15  Sep-16

 Median                      0.3     0.8     0.2     0.1    -0.2     0.2

 Range High                  0.7     1.5     0.4     0.2    -0.1     0.3

 Range Low                  -0.2     0.4    -0.2    -0.1    -0.4     0.1

Actual result                0.8     1.1     0.2    -0.1    -0.5     0.3

 vs median forecast         -0.5    -0.3     0.0     0.2     0.3    -0.1

                          Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17

Core PPI Forecast:

 Median                      0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                  0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.3

 Range Low                   0.1    -0.2     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1

Actual result                0.4     0.3     0.1    -0.1     0.1    #N/A

 vs median forecast         -0.2    -0.1     0.0     0.3     0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:    Sep-11  Sep-12  Sep-13  Sep-14  Sep-15  Sep-16

 Median                      0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1

 Range High                  0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.1     0.2

 Range Low                  -0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1     0.0     0.1

Actual result                0.2     0.0     0.1     0.0    -0.3     0.2

 less median forecast       -0.1     0.2     0.0     0.1     0.4    -0.1

NOTE: From Jan. 2014 forward, forecast data are for Final Demand PPI and Core

                                     May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17

USDA Farm Prices Rec'd Index (% chg)    2.1    -0.1    -2.9    -2.0    #N/A

ISM Mfg Index Price Index              60.5    55.0    62.0    62.0    71.5

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index           49.2    52.1    55.7    57.9    66.3

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]