MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: Sept Sales Seen +1.9% On Vehicles>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rebound by 1.9% in 

September, due to both a strong recovery in vehicle sales and 

hurricane-related increase in gasoline prices, as AAA reported that 

gasoline prices rose solidly in mid-September from one month earlier. 

Retail sales are expected to rise 0.9% excluding motor vehicles after 

August's modest 0.2% gain, owing mostly to the gasoline jump and to 

building materials sales after the storms. 

     Analysts sharply sharply overestimated retail sales in August, as 

motor vehicle sales decline in part due to hurricane impact. Downward 

revisions to the previous two months made the picture even gloomier. 

Sales excluding vehicles were also overestimated, as a jump in gasoline 

station sales was not enough to completely offset declines elsewhere. 

Misses on past September data have been mixed, so the bigger risk to 

forecasts is the impact of the hurricanes that hit in late August and 

early-September. 

                         Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17

Retail Sales forecast:

 Median                     0.6     0.0     0.1     0.3     0.1     1.9

 Range High                 0.8     0.2     0.2     1.0     0.7     2.7

 Range Low                  0.4    -0.3     0.0     0.2    -0.3     1.4

Actual result               0.4    -0.3    -0.2     0.6    -0.2    #N/A

 vs median forecast:        0.2     0.3     0.3    -0.3     0.3    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Sep-11  Sep-12  Sep-13  Sep-14  Sep-15  Sep-16

 Median                     0.8     0.8     0.2    -0.2     0.1     0.6

 Range High                 1.6     1.3     0.5     0.1     0.3     0.8

 Range Low                  0.4     0.5    -0.1    -0.5    -0.1     0.4

Actual result               1.1     1.1    -0.1    -0.3     0.1     0.6

 vs median forecast:       -0.3    -0.3     0.3     0.1     0.0     0.0

                         Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17

Retail ex-autos Forecast:

 Median                     0.5     0.1     0.2     0.3     0.5     0.9

 Range High                 0.9     0.4     0.3     1.0     0.9     1.9

 Range Low                  0.3    -0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.7

Actual result:              0.3    -0.3    -0.2     0.5     0.2    #N/A

 vs median forecast:        0.2     0.4     0.4    -0.2     0.3    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Sep-11  Sep-12  Sep-13  Sep-14  Sep-15  Sep-16

 Median                     0.4     0.7     0.5     0.3    -0.1     0.4

 Range High                 1.0     1.1     0.7     0.4     0.1     0.5

 Range Low                  0.2     0.2     0.1     0.0    -0.3     0.1

Actual result               0.6     1.1     0.4    -0.2    -0.3     0.5

 vs median forecast:       -0.2    -0.4     0.1     0.5     0.2    -0.1

                                Jun-17   Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17

NA-Made Car Sales, mln units, sa    4.2     4.0     4.2     4.0     4.6

NA-MadeTruck Sales, mln units, s    8.5     8.8     8.7     8.3     9.6

AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)       2.340   2.329   2.260   2.351   2.661

 mo/mo pct change                 #N/A     -0.5    -3.0     4.0    13.2

Consumer confidence               117.6   117.3   120.0   120.4   119.8

Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6 mo:*

 Automobile                        12.5    12.6    13.6    12.9    12.1

 Home                               6.1     6.0     6.7     7.3     6.9

 Major appliance                   48.5    52.1    47.7    50.5    54.0

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* Respondents answering "yes"

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]