MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: September Indust Prod Seen +0.2%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to rise 0.2% 

in September after a 0.9% hurricane-related plunge in the previous 

month. The effects of Hurricane Irma in Florida should be seen with this 

month's data, providing some downside risk and accounting for the wide 

range of forecasts. Factory payrolls fell by 1,000 in September, while 

auto production jobs fell by 3,000 and the factory workweek was 

unchanged at 40.7 hours. The ISM production index rose to 62.2 in 

September from 61.0 in the previous month. Utilities production is      

expected to rise modestly in the month after a 5.5% August drop, while  

mining production is forecast to recover after posting a 0.8% decline   

due to Harvey. Capacity utilization is forecast to tick up to 76.2% from 

76.1% in August. 

     Analysts sharply overestimated industrial production in August as 

the hurricane-impact on manufacturing, mining, and utilites production 

was more pronounced than even the most pessimistic analyst expected. 

Recent September misses have been generally to the low side, but the 

impact of the two major hurricanes will be the bigger factor.

Industrial Production:     Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17

Forecast:

 Median                       0.6     0.2     0.3     0.3     0.1     0.2

 High                         1.0     0.5     0.5     0.5     0.5     0.8

 Low                          0.2    -0.1     0.2     0.1    -1.3    -0.9

Actual result                 1.0     0.0     0.4     0.2    -0.9     #N/A

 vs median forecast          -0.4     0.2    -0.1     0.1     1.0     #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Sep-11  Sep-12  Sep-13  Sep-14  Sep-15  Sep-16

 Median                       0.2     0.2     0.4     0.4    -0.3     0.1

 High                         0.3     0.6     0.5     0.5     0.1     0.5

 Low                          0.0    -0.1     0.1     0.1    -0.6    -0.2

Actual result                 0.2     0.4     0.6     1.0    -0.2     0.1

 vs median forecast           0.0    -0.2    -0.2    -0.6    -0.1     0.0

Capacity Utilization:       Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17

Forecast:

 Median                      76.4    76.8    76.8    76.7    76.8    76.2

 High                        76.7    77.0    76.9    76.9    77.0    76.6

 Low                         76.2    76.6    76.6    76.6    75.6    75.4

Actual result                76.7    76.6    76.6    76.7    76.1     #N/A

 vs median forecast          -0.3     0.2     0.2     0.0     0.7     #N/A

Historical Comparison:      Sep-11  Sep-12  Sep-13  Sep-14  Sep-15  Sep-16

 Median                      77.5    78.3    78.1    79.0    77.3    75.5

 High                        77.7    78.6    78.2    79.1    77.6    76.0

 Low                         77.4    78.0    77.7    78.7    77.0    75.3

Actual result                77.4    78.3    78.3    79.3    77.5    75.4

 vs median forecast           0.1     0.0    -0.2    -0.3    -0.2     0.1

                            Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17

NA-Made Motor Vehicle Sale    12.9    12.7    12.8    12.9    12.3    14.2

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg        0.3     0.0     0.3     0.2    -0.2     0.0

Factory Jobs (000's)             9       0      21     -11      41      -1

 Auto Prod Jobs (000's)         -1       1       3     -27      24      -3

Mining Jobs (000's)             10       6       6       1       6       2

Levels:

  ISM Mfg PMI                 54.8    54.9    57.8    56.3    58.8    60.8

  ISM Mfg Production          58.6    57.1    62.4    60.6    61.0    62.2

  Phila. Fed Index            22.0    38.8    27.6    19.5    18.9    23.8

  Empire State Index           5.2    -1.0    19.8     9.8    25.2    24.4

  Chicago PMI                 58.3    59.4    65.7    58.9    58.9    65.2

  Factory Workweek            40.7    40.7    40.8    40.9    40.7    40.7

  Factory Overtime             3.2     3.3     3.3     3.3     3.3     3.3

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]