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MNI US Inflation Insight, May’22: Not Just Airfares Taking Off

Core CPI inflation in April was led higher by airfares but signs of underlying strength

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • CPI inflation was stronger than expected in April with core at +0.57% M/M (cons 0.4% M/M) after +0.32%, of which airfares accounted for approximately half the surprise.
  • It’s not at simple as just an airfare shock though, with sticky rent prices accelerating and a re-broadening in price pressures.
  • Year-ago inflation rates have pulled back from March’s multi-decade peaks but are expected to be slow in their decline.
  • MNI reviews summaries of fifteen sell side analysts.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL NOTE HERE:

USInflationInsightMay2022.pdf


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • CPI inflation was stronger than expected in April with core at +0.57% M/M (cons 0.4% M/M) after +0.32%, of which airfares accounted for approximately half the surprise.
  • It’s not at simple as just an airfare shock though, with sticky rent prices accelerating and a re-broadening in price pressures.
  • Year-ago inflation rates have pulled back from March’s multi-decade peaks but are expected to be slow in their decline.
  • MNI reviews summaries of fifteen sell side analysts.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL NOTE HERE:

USInflationInsightMay2022.pdf