MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Rally Falters, Eyeing Support Between 118-105/118-077

*RES 4: 119-030 Median line drawn off Mar & May lows

*RES 3: 118-310/320 Apr 17, May 18 highs

*RES 2: 118-247 Jun 14 high

*RES 1: 118-220 Aug 11 high

*PRICE: 118-115 @1042GMT

*SUP 1: 118-105 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 118-085/090 Aug 10 low, Aug 7 high

*SUP 3: 118-077 7 week rising support line

*SUP 4: 118-035 Aug 4 low

*COMMENTARY* The move back above 118-157 on Friday removed the immediate threat

of Wednesday's 'shooting star' candle close. A high of 118-220 seen so far, just

shy of a return towards the Jun 14 high at 118-247. Support moves again, 118-105

initially, 118-085/118-090 still below. Not unless we lose the 7 week rising

support line, at 118-077 by time today, will the near term bias swing once again

to the downside. Above 118-247 and look to 118-310/118-320 next.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) A 126-060/126-045 Break Would Initiate Correction

*RES 4: 127-180 1% volatility band

*RES 3: 127-080 Jun 14 high

*RES 2: 126-280/290 Aug 11, Jun 26 highs

*RES 1: 126-220 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 126-090 @1052GMT

*SUP 1: 126-060 Aug 10 low

*SUP 2: 126-045 3 week rising support line

*SUP 3: 125-290 Aug 4, Aug 8 lows

*SUP 4: 125-155 Jul 25, Jul 26 lows

*COMMENTARY* Again here, the move back above 126-185 on Friday has removed the

near term threat from Wednesday's 'shooting star' candle close. In fact the

subsequent rise has  broken above the key 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 126-215. A

high of 126-280, as we close in on the Jun 26 high at 126-290. Support comes

initially from 126-060, the 3 week rising support line at 126-045 below. Loss of

the latter would concern now.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17)  Combination Of 'Doji' Close And 76.4% Fibo Level 

*RES 4: 156-23 Jun 22 high

*RES 3: 156-08 1% volatility band

*RES 2: 155-29 76.4% Fibo of 157-08/151-18, Aug 11 high 

*RES 1: 155-14 Aug 14 high 

*PRICE: 154-17 @1100GMT

*SUP 1: 154-03/13 Hourly support, Aug 10 low

*SUP 2: 153-16/17 Jul 31 high, Aug 2, Aug 8 lows

*SUP 3: 153-00 76.4% Fibo of 152-03/155-29

*SUP 4: 152-03 Jul 27, Jul 28 lows

*COMMENTARY* The rally found fresh impetus on Friday for a break above the

previously troublesome 155-10 level. Has yet however, to extend the rise through

the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 155-29 and the subsequent fall and 'Doji' candle

close remains a concern here. As a consequence, nearest support now comes in at

the 154-03/154-13 area. Would anticipate these to hold any setbacks now, if the

recovery is to continue and avoid deeper corrective issues.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) Edges Higher Through 98.560-98.565 Resistance

*RES 4: 98.655 May 18 high

*RES 3: 98.630 Jun 14 high

*RES 2: 98.610 Jun 6 high

*RES 1: 98.580/590 Jul 14, Jun 16 highs

*PRICE: 98.550 @1104GMT

*SUP 1: 98.535/545 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 98.515 Initial recovery high Jul 6, now support

*SUP 3: 98.495 Jul 6 low, 50% of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 4: 98.470 Apr 23 low

*COMMENTARY* Finally some near term movement as we rally back above

98.560-98.565 resistance. Now looking to see if this bounce has the impetus to

trouble the next 98.580-98.590 area. Through the latter needed before we reach

more important levels between 98.610-98.630. As a result, nearest support has

risen to 98.535-98.545, with the 98.515 level still seen as key on the downside.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]