MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Recovery Falters Just Below 50% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: 116-277/282 76.4% of 117-032/116-032, Nov 28 high

*RES 3: 116-227/230 Dec 1 high, 61.8% Fibo of 117-032/116-032

*RES 2: 116-190/192 Dec 13 high, 50% Fibo of 117-032/116-032

*RES 1: 116-162 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 116-070 @1141GMT

*SUP 1: 116-070/092 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 116-032 Dec 13 low

*SUP 3: 115-317 10 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: 115-152 3 month bear channel base projection

*COMMENTARY* The 116-052 area which provided previous protection to the downside

this month, was put under pressure last Wednesday. A low of 116-032 before

seeing a bounce back above 116-170/116-177 resistance. This now sees 116-192 as

the next Fibo retrace, the 50% in the fall seen since the 117-032 high of early

November. Will need to cross back above here, before chances improve for a

further 116-227/116-282 rise. Support moves to 116-070 ahead of 116-032.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 124-230/124-275 Still Main Near Term Resistance

*RES 4: 124-320 Nov 28 high

*RES 3: 124-260/275 10 week res line, Dec 1, Nov 29 highs

*RES 2: 124-210/230 Dec 13, Dec 6 highs

*RES 1: 124-190 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 124-075 @1147GMT

*SUP 1: 124-025/065 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 123-290/295 Dec 13, Nov 30 lows

*SUP 3: 123-270 Oct 25, Oct 27 lows

*SUP 4: 123-100 10 week bear channel base projection

*COMMENTARY* The 123-295 low from the end of last month came under pressure

again last Wednesday. Once again found the ability to bounce from 1123-290 but

for now still mired in resistance from below 124-230/124-275, requiring a move

back above the latter, before real interest in an upside resurgence will appear.

In the meantime, some earlier resistance from 124-190/124-210. Support

124-065/124-025 ahead of still important 123-295/123-270.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Recovers But Still Below Key 154-23/154-26 Area

*RES 4: 155-08 61.8% Fibo of 158-09/150-10

*RES 3: 155-04 Sep 25 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: 154-23/26 76.4% 156-14/149-07, November highs

*RES 1: 154-15/18 Dec 15, Dec 6 highs

*PRICE: 153-30 @1205GMT

*SUP 1: 153-14/22 Hourly support, Dec 15 low

*SUP 2: 153-04 Dec 14 low

*SUP 3: 152-22/25 Congestion area Dec 8-Dec 13

*SUP 4: 152-05 Dec 12 low

*COMMENTARY* A bounce from Tuesday's 152-05 low and through the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at 154-00 but as yet and importantly the 154-23/154-26 resistance

area remains intact. Will need to circumvent resistance from here, if the latest

rise is not to prove just corrective. Meanwhile, support comes initially from

153-22/153-04, with the 153-25/153-22 area of more consequence below. Loss of

the latter will disappoint now.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) Last Week Saw Move Toward 98.200 Support

*RES 4: 98.365 Oct 30 high

*RES 3: 98.345 Oct 6 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 98.325 Nov 15 high

*RES 1: 98.290/300 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 98.215 @1208GMT

*SUP 1: 98.210 Dec 13 low

*SUP 2: 98.200 Jan 26 high, Mar 15 low

*SUP 3: 98.185 61.8% Fibo of 97.535-98.240

*SUP 4: 98.165 Mar 30 2015 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Some movement last month, support from 98.290 the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level gave way, followed by the Mar 16 base at 98.260. Now support from

98.240 has broken, a sustained break below and the dual support from 98.200

comes back into view. To provide any relief, then an initial move back above

98.290-98.300 is needed, before thoughts can turn to a better 98.325-98.365

recovery.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]