MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Decline Heads Toward 10 Week Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: 116-190 Dec 13 high

*RES 3: 116-147 Hourly recovery high Dec 14

*RES 2: 116-117 Dec 18 high

*RES 1: 116-067/087 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 116-027 @1155GMT

*SUP 1: 115-320 Dec 19 low

*SUP 2: 115-307 10 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: 115-132 3 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: 115-045 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Fresh downside pressure this week following the inability to

traverse the 50% Fibo retrace level at 116-192 last Wednesday. Have finally seen

116-032 support buckle, the subsequent decline moving ever closer to the 10 week

bear channel base projection at 115-307. Meanwhile, some near term oversold

conditions can prompt a bounce, 116-067/116-087 providing resistance. Above and

congested 116-117/116-147 lies ahead of any attempt at a real recovery.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Decline Jousts With Long Term Fibo Support

*RES 4: 124-210 Dec 13 high

*RES 3: 124-135 Dec 18 high

*RES 2: 124-070 Dec 15 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 123-290/295 Dec 13, Nov 30 lows, now resistance

*PRICE: 123-225 @1212GMT

*SUP 1: 123-200 Dec 19 low

*SUP 2: 123-145 10 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: 123-115 Mar 17 low

*SUP 4: 122-310 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* 123-290/123-295 support gave way on Tuesday. The subsequent fall

dicing with the long term 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 123-235. A low of 123-200

seen so far, before bouncing on the back of some oversold hourly conditions.

123-290/123-295 now becomes near term resistance, above needed before the chance

of a better 124-070/124-135 recovery. Below 123-200 and the 10 week bear channel

base at 123-145, is the protection against a 123-115/122-310 fall.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Challenging Key 151-17/151-07 Support Area

*RES 4: 153-22/26 Congestion area Dec 13-Dec 15

*RES 3: 153-15 Dec 19 high

*RES 2: 153-02 Dec 18 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 152-05 Dec 12 low, now resistance

*PRICE: 151-13 @1230GMT

*SUP 1: 151-11/17 76.4% Fibo, 1% vol band, 2017 Bull Channel

*SUP 2: 151-07 Oct 6 low

*SUP 3: 150-10 Oct 27 low

*SUP 4: 149-31 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Failure to trouble 154-23/154-26 resistance this month has finally

proved the catalyst for a sharp decline. This losing support from 153-22 on

Tuesday has seen the Dec 12 low at 152-05 give way. Now challenging important

support from between 151-17/151-07, where a confluence of key levels conspire to

reside today. Lose here and not much to prevent a deeper 150-10/149-31 fall.

Meanwhile, back above 152-05 would likely provide some 153-02/153-26 respite.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) Moving Closer Toward 98.200 Support

*RES 4: 98.365 Oct 30 high

*RES 3: 98.345 Oct 6 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 98.325 Nov 15 high

*RES 1: 98.290/300 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 98.205 @1235GMT

*SUP 1: 98.200 Jan 26 high, Mar 15 low

*SUP 2: 98.185 61.8% Fibo of 97.535-98.240

*SUP 3: 98.165 Mar 30 2015 high, now support

*SUP 4: 98.080 Dec 2015 low

*COMMENTARY* Some movement last month, support from 98.290 the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level gave way, followed by the Mar 16 base at 98.260. Now support from

98.240 has broken, a sustained break below and the dual support from 98.200

comes back into view. To provide any relief, then an initial move back above

98.290-98.300 is needed, before thoughts can turn to a better 98.325-98.365

recovery.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]