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MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq
US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Long Term Support Still Intact, 116-067 Resistance
*RES 4: 116-147 Hourly recovery high Dec 14
*RES 3: 116-117 Dec 18 high
*RES 2: 116-065/067 Dec 29 high, Dec 18 low
*RES 1: 116-027 Jan 3 high
*PRICE: 115-260 @1128GMT
*SUP 1: 115-235/240 Intraday, Jan 4 lows
*SUP 2: 115-192 5 year bear channel base projection
*SUP 3: 115-027 3 month bear channel base projection
*SUP 4: 114-255 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Fresh downside pressure continues this week following the inability
to traverse the 50% Fibo retrace level at 116-192 last month. A spike low of
115-235 today before again finding some support, ahead of the longer term
supports between 115-192/115-027. Meanwhile, 116-067 still provides main
resistance. Above and congested 116-117/116-147 lies ahead of any attempt at a
real recovery.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Recovery Still Beholden To 123-115/123-080 Support
*RES 4: 124-135 Dec 18 high
*RES 3: 124-070 Dec 15 low, now resistance
*RES 2: 124-025 Dec 29 high
*RES 1: 123-285 Jan 3 high
*PRICE: 123-180 @1140GMT
*SUP 1: 123-115/130 Mar 17, Dec 21, intraday lows
*SUP 2: 123-080 3 month bear channel base 
*SUP 3: 122-205 Mar 10, Mar 14 lows
*SUP 4: 121-145/155 Dec 15 low, 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* 123-290/123-295 support gave way late last month. The subsequent
fall breaking below the long term 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 123-235. A low of
123-125 seen so far, just above the Mar 17 low at 123-115 and also the 3 month
bear channel base at 123-080 today. Subsequently we have seen a rise to 124-025
but still needs through here and then 124-070 before the chance of seeing a
better recovery. Loss of 123-080 would caution now.
US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Recovery Still Lacks A 153-17 Break
*RES 4: 154-26/27 Nov 8, Nov 28 highs
*RES 3: 154-15/18 Dec 15, Dec 6 highs
*RES 2: 153-15/17 Dec 19 high, 76.4% Fibo of 154-15/150-14
*RES 1: 153-03/04 Dec 29, Dec 27 highs
*PRICE: 151-31 @1155GMT
*SUP 1: 151-12 Jan 2 low
*SUP 2: 151-07/08 Dec 22, Dec 21 highs, now support
*SUP 3: 150-14 Dec 20 low
*SUP 4: 150-07/10 May 11, Oct 27 lows
*COMMENTARY* The decline at the back end of last month found support from
150-14, keeping us above the key 150-10/150-07 lows from October and May last
year. The subsequent recovery has been impressive, reaching above 152-30
resistance, but with a high of 153-04, so far remains below the next resistance
of note, the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 153-17. As a result, support moves to
151-12 and then more importantly 151-08/151-07.
     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) 98.185-98.165 Next Support Area As Decline
Continues
*RES 4: 98.345 Oct 6 low, now resistance
*RES 3: 98.325 Nov 15 high
*RES 2: 98.290 Nov 14 low, Nov 22, 24, 28 & 29 highs
*RES 1: 98.245/250 Dec 28, 29 & Dec 14 highs
*PRICE: 98.190 @1159GMT
*SUP 1: 98.175/180 Jan 4 low, 1.618 swing of 98.205-98.245
*SUP 2: 98.165 Mar 30 2015 high, now support
*SUP 3: 98.080 Dec 2015 low
*SUP 4: 98.055 Nov 2015 low
*COMMENTARY* Have finally seen a slip below 98.200, opening the way for a look
at 98.185-98.165 where the next layer of support lies. Any lower than this and
there is the chance for a potentially deeper fall, as not much is currently then
evident ahead of the December 2015 low at 98.080. Meanwhile, the failure to
recover through 98.245-98.250 has been the catalyst for the latest fall, still
need back above here for any respite.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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