MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Long Term Support Still Intact, 116-067 Resistance

*RES 4: 116-147 Hourly recovery high Dec 14

*RES 3: 116-117 Dec 18 high

*RES 2: 116-065/067 Dec 29 high, Dec 18 low

*RES 1: 116-027 Jan 3 high

*PRICE: 115-260 @1128GMT

*SUP 1: 115-235/240 Intraday, Jan 4 lows

*SUP 2: 115-192 5 year bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: 115-027 3 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: 114-255 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Fresh downside pressure continues this week following the inability

to traverse the 50% Fibo retrace level at 116-192 last month. A spike low of

115-235 today before again finding some support, ahead of the longer term

supports between 115-192/115-027. Meanwhile, 116-067 still provides main

resistance. Above and congested 116-117/116-147 lies ahead of any attempt at a

real recovery.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Recovery Still Beholden To 123-115/123-080 Support

*RES 4: 124-135 Dec 18 high

*RES 3: 124-070 Dec 15 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 124-025 Dec 29 high

*RES 1: 123-285 Jan 3 high

*PRICE: 123-180 @1140GMT

*SUP 1: 123-115/130 Mar 17, Dec 21, intraday lows

*SUP 2: 123-080 3 month bear channel base 

*SUP 3: 122-205 Mar 10, Mar 14 lows

*SUP 4: 121-145/155 Dec 15 low, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* 123-290/123-295 support gave way late last month. The subsequent

fall breaking below the long term 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 123-235. A low of

123-125 seen so far, just above the Mar 17 low at 123-115 and also the 3 month

bear channel base at 123-080 today. Subsequently we have seen a rise to 124-025

but still needs through here and then 124-070 before the chance of seeing a

better recovery. Loss of 123-080 would caution now.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Recovery Still Lacks A 153-17 Break

*RES 4: 154-26/27 Nov 8, Nov 28 highs

*RES 3: 154-15/18 Dec 15, Dec 6 highs

*RES 2: 153-15/17 Dec 19 high, 76.4% Fibo of 154-15/150-14

*RES 1: 153-03/04 Dec 29, Dec 27 highs

*PRICE: 151-31 @1155GMT

*SUP 1: 151-12 Jan 2 low

*SUP 2: 151-07/08 Dec 22, Dec 21 highs, now support

*SUP 3: 150-14 Dec 20 low

*SUP 4: 150-07/10 May 11, Oct 27 lows

*COMMENTARY* The decline at the back end of last month found support from

150-14, keeping us above the key 150-10/150-07 lows from October and May last

year. The subsequent recovery has been impressive, reaching above 152-30

resistance, but with a high of 153-04, so far remains below the next resistance

of note, the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 153-17. As a result, support moves to

151-12 and then more importantly 151-08/151-07.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) 98.185-98.165 Next Support Area As Decline

Continues

*RES 4: 98.345 Oct 6 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 98.325 Nov 15 high

*RES 2: 98.290 Nov 14 low, Nov 22, 24, 28 & 29 highs

*RES 1: 98.245/250 Dec 28, 29 & Dec 14 highs

*PRICE: 98.190 @1159GMT

*SUP 1: 98.175/180 Jan 4 low, 1.618 swing of 98.205-98.245

*SUP 2: 98.165 Mar 30 2015 high, now support

*SUP 3: 98.080 Dec 2015 low

*SUP 4: 98.055 Nov 2015 low

*COMMENTARY* Have finally seen a slip below 98.200, opening the way for a look

at 98.185-98.165 where the next layer of support lies. Any lower than this and

there is the chance for a potentially deeper fall, as not much is currently then

evident ahead of the December 2015 low at 98.080. Meanwhile, the failure to

recover through 98.245-98.250 has been the catalyst for the latest fall, still

need back above here for any respite.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]