MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Decline Threatening The 4 Month Bear Channel Base 

*RES 4: 115-092 Jan 23 high7

*RES 3: 115-032 Jan 24 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 114-310/320 Jan 30 high, Jan 21 low

*RES 1: 114-272 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 114-170 @1134GMT

*SUP 1: 114-155/175 Feb 1 low, 4 month bear channel base

*SUP 2: 114-100 Apr 12 2010 low

*SUP 3: 113-280 Apr 5 2010 low

*SUP 4: 113-245 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The descent continues, most latterly through the 4 month bear

channel base, at 114-175 by time today. A low of 114-155 seen so far, before

encountering some near term oversold conditions. Resistance from 114-272 is now

the initial bar to gains, the 114-310/114-320 region currently considered a

tougher proposition higher. Through here needed before belief in any kind of

recovery will emerge. Lose 114-1155 and the Apr 12 2010 low at 114-100 is next.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Continues Lower, Eyeing 5 Month Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: 122-175 Jan 23 high

*RES 3: 122-060 Series hourly lows Jan 24-25

*RES 2: 122-015 Jan 21 low, now resistance 

*RES 1: 121-305/310 Jan 30 high, Jan 25 low 

*PRICE: 121-040 @1141GMT

*SUP 1: 121-020 Intraday low

*SUP 2: 120-280 5 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: 120-210 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: 120-115 61.8% Fibo of 111-005/135-155

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to tumble, following on from the break below the Sep

2013 low at 122-070 earlier in the month. The 8 week channel base has given way,

a low of 121-020 so far today. Resistance comes from 121-305/122-015 but likely

requires a move back above 122-060 now before any real upside interest will

appear. Below 121-020 and the 5 month bear channel base at 120-280 and the 1%

volatility band at 120-210 come into view next.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Extends Losses To Last Year's 145-26 Low

*RES 4: 149-03 Jan 10 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 148-06/07 Jan 31 high, Jan 24 low

*RES 2: 147-18/25 Congestion area Jan 29-Feb 1

*RES 1: 147-04 Jan 30 low, now resistance

*PRICE: 145-31 @1155GMT

*SUP 1: 145-26 Mar 14 low

*SUP 2: 145-04 2% volatility band

*SUP 3: 144-03 Feb 23 2015 low

*SUP 4: 143-25 Feb 16 2015 low

*COMMENTARY* Downside has extended today, leaving support from 5 month and 7

week bear channel bases in it's wake. Has also lost the lower 1% volatility band

at 146-20 by time today. Has already retested the Mar 14 low at 145-26, which is

now the next outstanding support level. Below here and not much showing until

145-04 and then some lows from Feb 2015. First resistance of note from 147-04

and then the previously congested 147-18/147-25 area.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) Now Likely On Approach To 98.080 Support

*RES 4: 98.245 Dec 28-29 highs

*RES 3: 98.225 Jan 3 high

*RES 2: 98.205 Dec 20-27 lows, Jan 5 high

*RES 1: 98.160 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 98.115 @1159GMT

*SUP 1: 98.110 Feb 1 low

*SUP 2: 98.080 Dec 2015 low

*SUP 3: 98.055 Nov 2015 low

*SUP 4: 97.995 38.2% Fibo of 95.980-99.240

*COMMENTARY* It began with the slip below 98.205 support on Jan 4 and has been

followed by a further break below 98.165. As a result, there is the chance for a

potentially deeper fall, as not much is currently evident ahead of the December

2015 low at 98.080. Meanwhile, 98.130 has given way as has Monday's 98.115 low,

which was the protection to 98.080. Nearest resistance falls to 98.160, back

above would provide some respite but that 98.205 level still a tougher ask.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]