MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Enters Into Next $1.1773-$1.1789 Resistance Area

*RES 4: $1.1881 June 2010 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1839 2% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.1789 4 month bull channel top projection

*RES 1: $1.1755/65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1724 @0839GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1650/70 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1613 Jul 26 low

*SUP 3: $1.1583 Jul 18 high, now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1532 6 week rising support line

*COMMENTARY* Fresh upside interest produced a rally which has taken us slightly

above $1.1773, the swing target of the recent $1.1712-$1.1613 fall but yet to

test the 4 month bull channel top projection at $1.1789. Some overbought

conditions currently being rectified, support comes from above $1.1670-$1.1650.

Loss of the latter would caution and suggest the power of the rise is beginning

to wane. Directly above $1.1789 and the 2% volatility band then comes into play.

CABLE TECHS: Heads Toward Next $1.3165-$1.3190 Resistance Band

*RES 4: $1.3253 Equality rise target from Jul 12 low $1.2812

*RES 3: $1.3245 1.618 swing of $1.3126-$1.2933

*RES 2: $1.3181/90 1% volatility band, hourly resistance

*RES 1: $1.3165 1.618 swing of $1.3030-$1.2812

*PRICE: $1.3140 @0903GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3106 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.3084 Jul 25 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3063 Initial rally high Jul 26, now support

*SUP 4: $1.3030 Congestion area Jul 24-26

*COMMENTARY* Breaks above the previous $1.3126 high, the next band of resistance

seen as situated between $1.3165-$1.3190. Support also on the rise, the intraday

low at $1.3106 the near term protection against anything more damaging at

present. Directly above $1.3190 and the swing target at $1.3245, of the recent

$1.3126-$1.2933 fall, and then $1.3253, the equality rise from $1.2812 to the

prior $1.2589-$1.3030 rise, are next objectives.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Breaks Out Of 2 Week Bear Channel But Fibo Level Hampers Rise

*RES 4: Y112.42 Jul 20 high

*RES 3: Y112.10/20 38.2% of Y114.50-Y110.62, Jul 26 high

*RES 2: Y111.85 Initial pullback low Jul 26, now resistance

*RES 1: Y111.40/50 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y111.25 @0918GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.78/83 Intraday, Jul 25 lows

*SUP 2: Y110.56/62 61.8% Y108.13-Y114.50, Jul 24 low, 1% vol

*SUP 3: Y110.16 76.4% Fibo of Y108.82-Y114.50

*SUP 4: Y109.63 76.4% Y108.13-Y114.50, swing Y110.62-Y112.20

*COMMENTARY* Unable to break free of the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at Y112.10 on

Wednesday, a high of Y112.20 before succumbing to a fresh fall. The subsequent

loss of the Jul 24 high at Y111.32 has seen near term bias return to the

downside, the Y110.78 intraday low, now protecting the key Y110.62-Y110.56 area.

Lose here and not much to stop a further Y110.16-Y109.63 decline. Resistance

Y111.40-50 but back above Y111.85 needed for respite.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Still Trying To Break Clear Of Y130.62-Y130.77 Highs

*RES 4: Y131.52 1.618 swing of Y130.51-Y128.87

*RES 3: Y131.00 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y130.77 Jul 11 high 

*RES 1: Y130.59/62 Jul 25, Jul 26 highs

*PRICE: Y130.46 @0927GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.94 Jul 26 low

*SUP 2: Y129.58 Initial recovery high Jul 25, now support

*SUP 3: Y129.25 Jul 25 low

*SUP 4: Y128.87 Jul 24 low 

*COMMENTARY* Still trying to find the strength for a retest to the month's

earlier Y130.77 high. The latest rally stalling at the earlier Y130.62 level.

Still favoured while pullbacks are held above yesterday's Y129.94 low, a further

move through Y130.77 then allowing a look at Y131.00-Y131.52 next. This a

combination of the upper 1% volatility band and the swing of the Y130.51-Y128.87

fall. Loss of Y129.94 will caution, Y129.58-Y129.25 then next to watch below.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Support Above Stg0.8899 Still Keeps Upside Bias Intact

*RES 4: Stg0.9052 Nov 2 high

*RES 3: Stg0.9028 Nov 9 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8995 Jul 21 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8960 Jul 25 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8920 @0931GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8899/04 Jul 18 high, Jul 26 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8867 Hourly base Jul 20

*SUP 3: Stg0.8829 Jul 19 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8805 1% vol band, 12 week rising suppt line

*COMMENTARY* Still in corrective mode after last week's rally to Stg0.8995, took

us above the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8983. This of the previous

Stg0.9402-Stg0.8305 fall seen between Oct-Dec last year. Now looking at support

from between yesterday's Stg0.8904 low and then last Tuesday's Stg0.8899 high to

hold, if the near term bias is to remain for higher. In this respect, back above

Stg0.8960 would now assist, Stg0.9028-Stg0.9052 the next attractions higher.

GOLD TECHS: Continues To Move Back Up The 5 Month Range

*RES 4: $1281.5 Jun 14 high

*RES 3: $1274.6 Jun 6 low, 76.4% Fibo of $1296.1-$1204.8

*RES 2: $1271.4 Hourly resistance

*RES 1: $1265.0 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1262.6 @0941GMT

*SUP 1: $1256.9 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1251.9 Initial rally high Jul 26, now support

*SUP 3: $1243.9 Jul 26 low

*SUP 4: $1235.4 Jul 20 low

*COMMENTARY* The move back up the 5 month range continues, with the latest move

through both the June highs at $1258.9 and also the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at

$1261.2. a high on the day so far at $1265.0 but the $1271.4 and then the 76.4%

Fibo retrace level at $1274.6 currently look more worth targets. In the interim,

support also on the rise, $1256.9 initially and then more importantly in the

near term from $1251.9.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]