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By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Next Support Seen From Between $1.1684-$1.1676
*RES 4: $1.1911/21 Aug 2 high, equality rise from $1.1119
*RES 3: $1.1860/70 Series congestion lows Aug 3-4
*RES 2: $1.1824/30 Aug 8 high, Aug 3 low
*RES 1: $1.1770/90 Recovery high Aug 9, hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1731 @0855GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1682/84 38.2% of $1.1312-$1.1911, Jul 21 high
*SUP 2: $1.1650 Jul 27 low
*SUP 3: $1.1639 1.618 swing of $1.1689-$1.1770
*SUP 4: $1.1612/13 50% of $1.1312-$1.1911, Jul 16 low
*COMMENTARY* Having lost $1.1712 support on Wednesday, we began a correction of
gains from the early July low at $1.1312. A low of $1.1689 so far, just ahead of
the next $1.1682-$1.1684 target area. The 1% volatility band is at the slightly
lower $1.1676 level today. Meanwhile the subsequent recovery has reached the
base of near term resistance between $1.1770-$1.1790. The latter the bar to any
greater recovery. Lose $1.1682-$1.1676 and then $1.1650-$1.1612 comes into play.
CABLE TECHS: $1.2929-$1.2920 Region Remains Unscathed So Far
*RES 4: $1.3145/50 Hourly congestion Aug 3-4
*RES 3: $1.3112 Aug 3 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $1.3059 Aug 7 high
*RES 1: $1.3029 Aug 9 high
*PRICE: $1.2992 @0958GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2951/53 Intraday, Aug 8 lows
*SUP 2: $1.2920/29 76.4% $1.2812-$1.3269, 50% $1.2589-$1.3269
*SUP 3: $1.2906 1.618 swing of $1.2953-$1.3029
*SUP 4: $1.2849 61.8% Fibo of $1.2589-$1.3269
*COMMENTARY* Resistance from $1.3059 and then $1.3029 this week, has seen
downside pressure resume. A low of $1.2951 so far, ahead of what looks a
stronger area between $1.2929-$1.2920. This a combination of two Fibo retrace
levels, the 50% of the rise from $1.2589 and perhaps slightly more importantly,
the 76.4% of the rise from $1.2812. Below here can allow an overshoot around
$1.2906 but any lower and $1.2849 comes into view.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Still Congested Near Term Support Above Y109.21
*RES 4: Y111.05 Aug 4 high
*RES 3: Y110.83 Aug 8 high
*RES 2: Y110.50/60 Congestion area Aug 4-Aug 7
*RES 1: Y110.25 Initial low Aug 8
*PRICE: Y109.88 @1006GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.49/56 4 month bull channel base, Aug 9 low
*SUP 2: Y109.21/25 1.618 swing Y109.91-Y111.05, 1% vol band
*SUP 3: Y108.82 Jun 14 low
*SUP 4: Y108.32 Equality fall from Y112.20 to Y114.50-Y110.62
*COMMENTARY* Finally getting a decent test to the Y109.63 area, a low of Y109.56
so far. This at the top end of what looks a congested support area between here
and the swing target at Y109.21. Any lower and still have the Jun 14 low at
Y108.82 to negotiate, before Y108.32 and the year's previous Y108.13 low comes
back into view. Meanwhile look to Y110.25 for initial resistance, back above
here now the minimum requirement for a bounce, Y110.50-60 above.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Breaks Below 4 Month Rising Support Line
*RES 4: Y130.45 Aug 3 low, now resistance
*RES 3: Y130.10 Aug 4 low, now resistance
*RES 2: Y129.55/56 Former support base late July, Aug 9 high
*RES 1: Y129.20/30 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y128.64 @1024GMT
*SUP 1: Y128.44/49 Aug 9, Jul 13 lows
*SUP 2: Y127.97/00 38.2% Fibo of Y122.40-Y131.41, Jul 6 low
*SUP 3: Y127.75 1.618 swing of Y128.44-Y129.56
*SUP 4: Y127.52 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Support from both the congested Y129.55 area and the 4 month rising
support line gave way on Wednesday. This leaves support around the Jul 13 low at
Y128.49 as the next downside defence against a greater loss, as we correct gains
seen since the mid June low at Y122.40. In the interim, Y129.20-30 forms initial
resistance, the former support base at Y129.55 of more consequence higher.
Sustained move below Y128.49 and look to Y127.97-Y127.52 next.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Swing Target At Stg0.9091 Halts Rally
*RES 4: Stg0.9179 2% volatility band
*RES 3: Stg0.9143 76.4% of Stg0.9402-Stg0.8305, Oct 10 high
*RES 2: Stg0.9091 1.618 swing of Stg0.9055-Stg0.8996
*RES 1: Stg0.9060/70 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.9012 @1031GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8989/96 Aug 2 high, Aug 4 low
*SUP 2: Stg0.8969 Jul 28 high, now support
*SUP 3: Stg0.8935/40 Congestion lows Jul 28-Aug 2
*SUP 4: Stg0.8909 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* The brief move above the upper 1% volatility band on Tuesday was
rewarded with an attempt on the next upside objective, the swing target at
Stg0.9091. Overbought in the near term as a result. The subsequent loss of
Stg0.9040 will see pressure on hourly support from Stg0.9010 and then
Stg0.8989-Stg0.8996. This area should now stay intact, if a deeper correction of
gains from Stg0.8891 is to be avoided. Resistance now from Stg0.9060-70.
GOLD TECHS: $1281.5-$1288.1 The Next Upside Target Area
*RES 4: $1296.1 Jun 6 high
*RES 3: $1291.4 One month bull channel top projection
*RES 2: $1288.1 1.618 swing of $1274.2-$1251.7
*RES 1: $1281.5 Jun 14 high
*PRICE: $1279.2 @1040GMT
*SUP 1: $1274.2 Aug 1 high, now support
*SUP 2: $1265.3 Aug 8 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1260.1 Aug 9 low
*SUP 4: $1251.1/2.1 76.4% of $1243.9-$1274.2, Jul 27 low
*COMMENTARY* Found support on Tuesday from within the important area situated
between the Jul 27 low at $1252.1 and the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1251.1.
The subsequent bounce has now moved through the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at
$1274.6, that capped rallies last month. Initial support meanwhile rises to that
level, with $1265.3-$1260.1 below, ahead of that still important $1251.1 level.
Maintained break above $1274.6 and $1281.5-$1288.1 next.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: firstname.lastname@example.org