MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pressure Back On Key $1.1682-$1.1687 Support 

*RES 4: $1.1911/21 Aug 2 high, equality rise from $1.1119

*RES 3: $1.1860/70 Series congestion lows Aug 3-4

*RES 2: $1.1847 Aug 11 high

*RES 1: $1.1800/10 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1724 @0839GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1682/87 38.2% of $1.1312-$1.1911, Aug 15 low

*SUP 2: $1.1625 Equality fall from $1.1847 to $1.1911-$1.1689

*SUP 3: $1.1612/13 50% of $1.1312-$1.1911, Jul 26 low

*SUP 4: $1.1591 1.618 swing of $1.1689-$1.1847

*COMMENTARY* The recovery over the last few days has run out of steam ahead of

the $1.1860-70 area. Through here needed to switch near term bias to higher

again. A high of $1.1847 last Friday before giving up some ground and with the

subsequent loss of $1.1715-20 support, pressure is back on $1.1682-87 again.

Beneath here and only minor support protects against a deeper $1.1612-$1.1591

fall. Nearest resistance falls to $1.1800-10.

CABLE TECHS: Continued Decline Reaches Next Key $1.2842-$1.2849 Area

*RES 4: $1.3032 Aug 11 high

*RES 3: $1.2991 Hourly recovery high Aug 14

*RES 2: $1.2939 Aug 11 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2915/20 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2894 @0853GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2842/49 Intraday low, 61.8% of $1.2589-$1.3269

*SUP 2: $1.2812 Jul 12 low

*SUP 3: $1.2749 76.4% Fibo of $1.2589-$1.3269

*SUP 4: $1.2733 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The loss of the key $1.2920-29 support area has been followed by a

drop to $1.2842 today. This is in line with a test to lower 1% volatility band

and also the base of the 5 month bull channel, as well as slightly below the

61.8% Fibo retrace level. So, another key area to navigate, before the way would

become clear for a further $1.2812-$1.2749 fall. Meanwhile, resistance

$1.2915-20 but back above $1.2939 would currently assist more.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Recovery Continues, Eyes Y110.93-Y111.15 Next

*RES 4: Y111.62 50% Fibo of Y114.50-Y108.73

*RES 3: Y111.25/38 1% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of Y112.20-Y108.73

*RES 2: Y111.05/15 Aug 4 high, swing target Y110.85-Y110.38

*RES 1: Y110.93 38.2% Fibo of Y114.50-Y108.73

*PRICE: Y110.91 @0903GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.15/20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y109.80 Aug 14 high, now support

*SUP 3: Y109.41/42 Aug 11 high, Aug 14 low

*SUP 4: Y109.04 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The move back through Y109.84 this week instilled near term

confidence allowing a rise through the congested Y110.45-50 area on Tuesday. As

a result, resistance next comes from the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at Y110.93 and

then the Aug 4 high and 1% volatility band between Y111.05-15. Support also on

the rise, Y110.15-20 now the the immediate protection to Monday's Y109.80 high.

Directly through Y111.15 and look to Y111.38-Y111.62 next.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y130.60-65 Resistance Becomes Pivotal To Overall Direction

*RES 4: Y132.23 Aug 2015 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y131.41 Aug 2 high

*RES 2: Y131.07 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y130.60/65 Congestion area Aug 3-Aug 8

*PRICE: Y130.15 @0915GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.60 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y129.42 Aug 15 low

*SUP 3: Y129.16 Initial recovery high Aug 11, now support

*SUP 4: Y128.92 Aug 14 low

*COMMENTARY* The hold of the key Y128.00-Y127.97 area last week has continued to

spawn a recovery. Still trying to sustain a move clearly back above the broken 4

month support line at Y130.13 by time today. Through here and next resistance

comes more importantly from the congested Y130.60-65 region. Through here needed

to swing overall bias back to the topside. As a consequence, support now from

Y129.60-Y129.42 but 129.16 currently looks more important to upside well being.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Makes A Challenge To Stg0.9143 Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: Stg0.9222 3 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: Stg0.9161 1.618 swing of Stg0.9119-Stg0.9051

*RES 2: Stg0.9154 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Stg0.9143 76.4% of Stg0.9402-Stg0.8305, Oct 10 high

*PRICE: Stg0.9103 @0925GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.9070/75 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.9050/51 5 week rising support line, Aug 11 low 

*SUP 3: Stg0.9035/40 Congestion area Aug 9-10

*SUP 4: Stg0.9008/09 Aug 10, Aug 9 lows

*COMMENTARY* Has built on support provided by the Stg0.9008-09 lows last week,

culminating in a move back above the swing target at Stg0.9091. Tuesday's move

through the previous Stg0.9119 high has now seen a challenge into the key

Stg0.9137-Stg0.9143 area. Will need to sustain a move through here, before the

next swing target at Stg0.9161 can be met. Support from Stg0.9070-75 should now

hold, else the 5 week support line at Stg0.9050, comes back under pressure.

GOLD TECHS: Correction Ensues After Falter Ahead Of The Year's High

*RES 4: $1296.1 Jun 6 high

*RES 3: $1292.3 Aug 11 high

*RES 2: $1285.7 Hourly recovery high Aug 11

*RES 1: $1278.7 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1270.3 @0928GMT

*SUP 1: $1267.2 61.8% Fibo of $1251.7-$1292.3

*SUP 2: $1265.1 6 week rising support line

*SUP 3: $1261.3 76.4% Fibo of $1251.7-$1292.3

*SUP 4: $1251.7 Aug 8 low

*COMMENTARY* After faltering at $1292.3, ahead of the year's previous $1296.1

high, we have commenced a correction, initially of gains from the Aug 8 low at

$1251.7. This has now left the 50% retrace level at $1272.0 in its wake leaving

$1267.2 as the next protection against a greater fall. Not until/unless we lose

the $1265.1-$1261.3 area however, does the overall bias once again swing back to

the downside. Meanwhile, resistance falls to $1278.7-$1285.7. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]