MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Projection Target At $1.1615 The Brake To Deeper Fall

*RES 4: $1.1753 Oct 25 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1725/30 Oct 23, Oct 18 lows, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.1700 Hourly high Oct 26

*RES 1: $1.1670 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1626 @0905GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1615 1.618x $1.1880-$1.1730 from $1.1858

*SUP 2: $1.1555 5 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: $1.1522 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.1506 1.618 swing of $1.1649-$1.1880

*COMMENTARY* In the slightly bigger picture, the failure to regain the head and

shoulders neckline, at $1.1901 by time today, over the last month, has finally

conspired to send us lower. The loss of the Oct 6 low at $1.1649 today, now sees

the 1.618 projection target at $1.1615 as the next support and protection

against a fall into the low $1.15's next. As a result, resistance also lower,

$1.1670-$1.1700 initially, then from the recent $1.1725-$1.1730 lows.

CABLE TECHS: Decline Continues Towards The Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.3200 Hourly recovery high Oct 26

*RES 3: $1.3179 Hourly base Oct 26, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.3140 Intraday high

*RES 1: $1.3115/25 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3085 @0920GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3050 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $1.3027 Oct 6 low

*SUP 3: $1.2979/83 Aug 29 high, 76.4% of $1.2774-$1.3659

*SUP 4: $1.2970 1.618 swing of $1.3088-$1.3280

*COMMENTARY* The decline continues again today, most latterly below $1.3110 and

also briefly the Oct 20 low at $1.3088. Below here and there is not much

currently evident until the lower 1% volatility band at $1.3050 and the

outstanding low from Oct 6 at $1.3027. Is however rapidly becoming oversold in

the near term, will need back above $1.3115-$1.3125 before any real interest in

a corrective rally will appear, $1.3140-$1.3179 then the resistance higher.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Finally Get The Challenge To Fibo Resistance At Y114.33

*RES 4: Y115.51/58 Mar 10 high, 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Y114.81 1.618 swing of Y114.25-Y113.34

*RES 2: Y114.66 1.618 swing of Y113.51-Y111.65

*RES 1: Y114.33/45 61.8% Fibo of Y118.67-Y107.32, 1% vol band

*PRICE: Y114.02 @0933GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.55/65 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y113.24/34 Oct 23, Oct 26 lows

*SUP 3: Y112.95 Hourly basing area Oct 18-19

*SUP 4: Y112.55/60 Hourly congestion area Oct 19

*COMMENTARY* Having held above Y113.24 support early on Thursday, have finally

seen a challenge to the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Y114.33. This repelled

initially, aided by some overbought hourly  conditions. Now looking for support

from Y113.65-Y113.55 to hold, if we are to regroup for another upside foray.

Above Y114.33 and there are still several resistances between Y114.45-Y114.81 to

negotiate next. Below Y113.55 will put Y113.34-Y113.24 under pressure.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y132.47-Y132.33 Can Provide A Near Term Brake To Fall

*RES 4: Y134.10/15 Series hourly lows Oct 25-26

*RES 3: Y133.90 Hourly congestion Oct 24-25

*RES 2: Y133.47 Hourly highs Oct 26

*RES 1: Y132.95/10 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y132.65 @0945GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.33/47 76.4% of Y131.66-Y134.50, Oct 19 low

*SUP 2: Y131.85 38.2% of Y127.56-Y134.50, 1% vol band

*SUP 3: Y131.66 Oct 16 low

*SUP 4: Y131.03/09 38.2% of Y127.56-Y134.50, Sep 7 high

*COMMENTARY* Unable to sustain a move above the Y134.41 Fibo level and paying

the price for spurning this opportunity. The slip back below Y133.75 was the

first warning sign, then compounded by the loss of Y133.35-Y133.10. This now

sees Y132.47-Y132.33 as the next region of support and protection against a

further Y131.85-Y131.66 fall. Meanwhile, Y132.95-Y133.10 provides initial

resistance, above which lies some upside corrective opportunity.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Pressure Returns To The Downside And On Stg0.8855-Stg0.8830

*RES 4: Stg0.8976/80 Oct 24 high, hourly recovery high Oct 20

*RES 3: Stg0.8957 Oct 26 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8932 Initial pullback low Oct 26, now resistance

*RES 1: Stg0.8905/15 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8880 @0950GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8851/55 I'day low, 61.8% of Stg0.8746-Stg0.9032 

*SUP 2: Stg0.8830 1.618 swing of Stg0.8886-Stg0.8976

*SUP 3: Stg0.8826 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8813 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8746-Stg0.9032

*COMMENTARY* Rallies have continued to falter within the key near term

Stg0.8970-Stg0.8994 resistance area. Failure to break the latter has had a

negative near term impact. The subsequent move back below Stg0.8900-Stg0.8895

has seen the recent Stg0.8880 range base lost. This sees the Stg0.8855-Stg0.8830

area come back into focus and protecting the Stg0.8813 Fibo level. In the

interim, Stg0.8905-Stg0.8915 provides resistance, Stg0.8932 above.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Rally Still Tracking The Upper 2% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.3015/16 Jul 5, Jul 3 highs

*RES 3: $1.2969 Jan 31 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2927 50% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061

*RES 1: $1.2896 2% volatility band

*PRICE: $1.2868 @1000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2817 Oct 25 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1.2782 Oct 26 low

*SUP 3: $1.2722/24 Oct 25 hourly low/hourly high

*SUP 4: $1.2661/69 Hourly congestion area Oct 23-24

*COMMENTARY* The creep higher turned into a sprint on Wednesday. The break above

$1.2723-$1.2779, still sees the upper 2% volatility band, rising to $1.2896 by

time today, as the next potential barrier to this rise. This a known curb on

either side of the market and as yet, never above it this year, and only briefly

below for three days last month. Above and 1.2927 is the next target. Support

from $1.2817 and then yesterday's $1.2782 low, loss would temper the rise.

GOLD TECHS: Fall Now Approaches $1264.3-$1260.7 Support

*RES 4: $1291.5 Oct 18 high

*RES 3: $1286.1 Oct 23 high

*RES 2: $1282.5 Oct 26 high

*RES 1: $1277.3 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1268.2 @1003GMT

*SUP 1: $1264.3 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1260.7 Oct 9 low

*SUP 3: $1251.7 Aug 8 low

*SUP 4: $1245.9 2017 bull channel base

*COMMENTARY* The $1271.4 support level has finally given way, below which there

is some minor support from around $1264.3 to consider next. Loss here will once

again put the key Oct 9 low at $1260.7 in the spotlight. As a result, resistance

now comes from $1277.3 and then Thursday's $1282.5 high. Need back above the

latter before the near term outlook can improve. Below $1260.7 would suggest

there is eventual scope for a deeper $1245.9-$1240.9 fall.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]