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Watching The 50-Day EMA


Bearish Focus

MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1644-$1.1680 The Bar To Any Further Recovery Hopes
*RES 4: $1.1753 Oct 25 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $1.1725/30 Oct 23, Oct 18 lows, now resistance
*RES 2: $1.1675/80 Hourly highs Oct 26
*RES 1: $1.1644 Oct 27 high
*PRICE: $1.1633 @0945GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1574 Oct 27 low
*SUP 2: $1.1531 5 week bear channel base projection
*SUP 3: $1.1506 1.618 swing of $1.1649-$1.1880, 2% vol band
*SUP 4: $1.1446 Jun 29 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* In the slightly bigger picture, the failure to regain the head and
shoulders neckline, at $1.1903 by time today, over the last month, has finally
conspired to send us lower. The loss of the Oct 6 low at $1.1649 and also the
1.618 projection target at $1.1615, now sees Friday's $1.1574 low as protection
against a fall into the lower $1.15's. As a result, resistance also falls,
$1.1644-$1.1680 initially, then from the recent $1.1725-$1.1730 lows.
CABLE TECHS: $1.3179 Break Needed To Continue The Recovery
*RES 4: $1.3280 Oct 26 high
*RES 3: $1.3236 Hourly high Oct 26
*RES 2: $1.3200 Hourly recovery high Oct 26
*RES 1: $1.3179 Hourly base Oct 26, now resistance
*PRICE: $1.3163 @0955GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3095/05 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3070 Oct 27 low
*SUP 3: $1.3046 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.3027 Oct 6 low
*COMMENTARY* Found support from $1.3070 on Friday, just above the lower 1%
volatility band, which has moved lower to $1.3046, by time today. Had become
oversold in the near term and now correcting the most recent losses from the Oct
26 high at $1.3280. In this respect, $1.3179 presents the initial barrier to the
recovery, $1.3200-$1.3236 on any break higher. Support also rises,
$1.3105-$1.3095 now the protection against a return lower.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y113.50 Currently Protects Key Y113.34-Y113.24 Support
*RES 4: Y114.81 1.618 swing of Y114.25-Y113.34
*RES 3: Y114.66 1.618 swing of Y113.51-Y111.65
*RES 2: Y114.45/55 Oct 27 high, 1% volatility band
*RES 1: Y114.10/20 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y113.60 @1005GMT
*SUP 1: Y113.50/55 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y113.24/34 Oct 23, Oct 26 lows
*SUP 3: Y113.07 Hourly basing area Oct 20
*SUP 4: Y112.70 Initial recovery high Oct 19, now support
*COMMENTARY* The break above Y114.33 on Friday, yielded a brief spike to the
upper 1% volatility band, at Y114.45 at the time, before once again retreating
into the recent range. Still looking to support from around Y113.50-55 to hold,
if we are to regroup for another upside foray. Above Y114.45 and there are still
several resistances between Y114.55-Y114.81 to negotiate next. Below Y113.50
will put key Y113.34-Y113.24 under pressure.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Finds Near Term Support Within The Y131.85-Y131.66 Zone
*RES 4: Y133.46 Hourly highs Oct 26
*RES 3: Y132.96 Oct 27 high
*RES 2: Y132.80 Hourly congestion Oct 26-27
*RES 1: Y132.60/65 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y132.17 @1015GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.66/75 Oct 16, Oct 27 lows
*SUP 2: Y131.41 Aug 2 high, now support
*SUP 3: Y131.03/09 38.2% of Y127.56-Y134.50, Sep 7 high
*SUP 4: Y130.48 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Unable to sustain a move above the Y134.41 Fibo level last week and
paying the price for spurning this opportunity. The fall has been compounded
again by the loss of Y132.47-Y132.33 and has subsequently dipped into the next
area of support from between Y131.85-Y131.66. Meanwhile, Y132.60-Y132.96
provides initial resistance and the bar to any further upside corrective
opportunity. Below Y131.66 and Y131.09-Y131.03 is the next support of note.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Lower 1% Volatility Band Protects Key Stg0.8813 Fibo Level
*RES 4: Stg0.8925 Series highs Oct 23, Oct 25
*RES 3: Stg0.8902 Oct 27 high
*RES 2: Stg0.8880/86 Oct 25, Oct 23 lows, now resistance
*RES 1: Stg0.8856 Oct 16 low, now resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8841 @1030GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8826 Oct 27 low
*SUP 2: Stg0.8813/17 76.4% Stg0.8746-Stg0.9032, 1% vol band
*SUP 3: Stg0.8746 Sep 27 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.8737 1.618x Stg0.9032-Stg0.8856 from Stg0.9022
*COMMENTARY* With rallies having continued to falter within the key near term
Stg0.8970-Stg0.8994 resistance area, at the beginning of last week. We have
gradually seen recent gains eroded, culminating in a test to the lower 1%
volatility band last Friday. This at the time protecting the next level of note
the 76.4% Fibo retrace at Stg0.8813. In the interim, Stg0.8856 provides initial
resistance, Stg0.8880-Stg0.8886 above.
     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2807-$1.2781 Provides Key Near Term Support
*RES 4: $1.3015/16 Jul 5, Jul 3 highs
*RES 3: $1.2969 Jan 31 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $1.2917/27 Oct 27 high, 50% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061
*RES 1: $1.2880/90 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2827 @1040GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2807 23.6% Fibo of $1.2451-$1.2917
*SUP 2: $1.2781 Oct 26 low
*SUP 3: $1.2739 38.2% Fibo of $1.2451-$1.2917
*SUP 4: $1.2684 50% Fibo of $1.2451-$1.2917
*COMMENTARY* Friday saw a brief spike above the upper 2% volatility band, at
$1.2923 by time today, as the upside moved to chase down the 50% Fibo retrace
level at $1.2927. A high of $1.2917 before succumbing to some overbought hourly
conditions. Now looking to $1.2807-$1.2781 support for next clues. While above,
look to $1.2880-90 for resistance now, Loss however will caution and signal that
a deeper correction of gains from the Oct 19 low at $1.2451, is required.
GOLD TECHS: Fall Holding Above Key $1260.7 Support
*RES 4: $1291.5 Oct 18 high
*RES 3: $1286.1 Oct 23 high
*RES 2: $1282.6 Oct 26 high
*RES 1: $1278.2 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1271.9 @1045GMT
*SUP 1: $1263.8 Oct 27 low
*SUP 2: $1260.7 Oct 9 low
*SUP 3: $1251.7 Aug 8 low
*SUP 4: $1248.6 2017 bull channel base
*COMMENTARY* The $1271.4 support level gave way last week, resulting in a low of
$1263.8 on Friday, just ahead of the next key level, the Oct 9 low at $1260.7.
As a result, resistance now comes from $1278.2 and then Thursday's $1282.6 high.
Still need back above the latter before the near term outlook can improve. Below
$1260.7 would suggest there is eventual scope for a deeper $1248.6-$1240.9 fall.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: