MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Still Requires $1.1835-$1.1845 Break

*RES 4: $1.1940 Dec 1 high, 1.618 swing $1.1863-$1.1738 

*RES 3: $1.1903 76.4% Fibo of $1.1961-$1.1717, 1% vol band

*RES 2: $1.1863/68 Dec 14 high, 61.8% Fibo of $1.1961-$1.1717

*RES 1: $1.1835/45 Hourly congestion area Dec 14

*PRICE: $1.1810 @0830GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1760/70 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1738 Dec 15 low

*SUP 3: $1.1709/13 61.8% of $1.1554-$1.1961, Nov 21 low

*SUP 4: $1.1694 1.618x 1.1961-$1.1809 from $1.1940

*COMMENTARY* A deeper setback than anticipated on Friday, the loss of $1.1763

seeing a further dip to $1.1738 before encountering some oversold hourly

conditions. This still leaves the congested $1.1713-$1.1694 support area intact.

The subsequent recovery has risen above $1.1800-$1.1813 but likely requiring a

move back through $1.1835-45, before once again being in a position to challenge

the Dec 14 high and 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.1863-68 and perhaps higher.

CABLE TECHS: Rally Halted By $1.3420-$1.3430 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.3520 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3492 76.4% Fibo of $1.3550-$1.3303

*RES 2: $1.3460/70 Pivotal highs/lows early December

*RES 1: $1.3420/30 Hourly congestion Dec 14-15

*PRICE: $1.3392 @0838GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3335/45 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3298/03 76.4% of $1.3221-$1.3549, Dec 15 low

*SUP 3: $1.3252 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.3221/27 Nov 28 low, 61.8% of $1.3027-$1.3550, 

*COMMENTARY* The $1.3303-$1.3298 area once again came to the rescue on Friday.

The sharp decline from last week's $1.3467 high was arrested at $1.3302, before

finding some respite on the back of some near term oversold conditions. The

subsequent rally through $1.3380-90, now faces resistance from $1.3420-30. Will

ultimately need back through here to renew upside potential and stave off

further downside probing. In the interim, support moves to $1.3345-$1.3335.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.99-Y111.95 Support Again Holds Off Pressure

*RES 4: Y113.75/82 Dec 12 high, 76.4% of Y114.74-Y110.84

*RES 3: Y113.37 Dec 12 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y113.09/13 Hourly congestion Dec 13

*RES 1: Y112.84/89 Dec 18, Dec 14 highs

*PRICE: Y112.59 @0842GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.20/25 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y111.95/99 61.8% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75, Dec 6 low

*SUP 3: Y111.79/85 1% volatility band, 4 month support line

*SUP 4: Y111.53 76.4% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75

*COMMENTARY* Unable to make an impression on the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

Y113.82 last week. Tuesday's rally pulling up shy at Y113.75. The subsequent

fall and break below Y113.13-Y113.09, began a correction, which with the further

loss of Y112.46-Y112.38, once again put the spotlight on Y111.99-Y111.95

support. This currently protecting against a further Y111.85-Y111.53 fall. In

the interim, resistance from Y112.89-Y113.37 bars the way to a recovery.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.13-Y133.35 Still In The Way Of Further Gains

*RES 4: Y134.38 Dec 1 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Y133.76/89 Dec 14, Dec 11 highs

*RES 2: Y133.35 Hourly congestive highs Dec 12-14

*RES 1: Y133.13 Initial low Dec 14, now resistance

*PRICE: Y132.98 @0851GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.55 Dec 18 low

*SUP 2: Y132.25/30 Congestion area Dec 14-15

*SUP 3: Y132.05 Dec 15 low

*SUP 4: Y131.77 Equality fall from Y133.89 to Y134.38-Y132.26

*COMMENTARY* The failure to deal with pivotal Fibo resistance at Y133.88 last

week, was the catalyst for the swift move back down the recent range. This sees

Y132.05-Y131.77 as protecting against further losses towards Y131.25-Y131.17.

The latter the base of the Y134.50-Y131.17 range that has been in effect since

mid September this year. In the interim, the move back above Y132.85 helps but

still faces resistance from Y133.13-Y133.35, ahead of Y133.76-Y133.89 again.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8868-Stg0.8885 Presents Next Barrier To Recovery

*RES 4: Stg0.8915 Hourly base Nov 28, now resistance

*RES 3: Stg0.8900 1.618 swing of Stg0.8846-Stg0.8761

*RES 2: Stg0.8880/85 Hourly high Nov 28, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Stg0.8868 Dec 5 high 

*PRICE: Stg0.8823 @0855GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8785/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8761 Dec 14 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8725 Initial high Dec 8, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8687/89 1.618 swing 0.8756-0.8868, Dec 8 low

*COMMENTARY* Found the strength for a move through Stg0.8850-54 on Friday but

for the time being the rally has stalled below the base of the next

Stg0.8868-Stg0.8885 resistance area. Will now need to see a move through here,

if the correction of losses from the late November high at Stg0.8982 is to

continue, with Stg0.8900-Stg0.8915 then of interest higher. Support from

Stg0.8795-Stg0.8785, last Thursday's Stg0.8761 low now important below.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Recovery Once Again Faces $1.2893-$1.2917 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2969/73 Jan 31 low, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.2927 50% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061

*RES 2: $1.2909/17 Nov 30, Oct 27 highs

*RES 1: $1.2893/95 Dec 12, Dec 15 highs

*PRICE: $1.2857 @0910GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2843 Dec 18 low

*SUP 2: $1.2816 Initial recovery high Dec 14, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2786 Hourly high Dec 15, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2739 Dec 15 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from $1.2714 last week. This and the $1.2687-$1.2665

area present important support now. In the interim, the subsequent rally on

Friday through firstly $1.2816 and then $1.2855, has once again brought us

toward $1.2893-$1.2917, an area that has capped rallies since late October.

These and the 50% Fibo retrace at $1.2927 are the bar to a higher

$1.2958-$1.3004 rise. Meanwhile, $1.2843 protects against any corrective action.

GOLD TECHS: Broken 2017 Bull Channel Base Now Features As Resistance

*RES 4: $1284.5 76.4% Fibo of $1299.3-$1236.6

*RES 3: $1275.3 61.8% Fibo of $1299.3-$1236.6

*RES 2: $1270.4 Nov 30 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1267.8 Underside broken 2017 bull channel

*PRICE: $1263.8 @0915GMT

*SUP 1: $1247.6 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1236.6 Dec 12 low

*SUP 3: $1232.6 1.618 swing of $1260.7-$1306.1

*SUP 4: $1230.9 1.618x $1306.1-$1263.8 from $1299.3

*COMMENTARY* A low of $1236.6 last Tuesday, above the next targeted support area

from between $1232.6-$1230.9. The subsequent bounce, aided by some heavily

oversold conditions as a result of this month's decline from $1299.3 and with

the break above $1260.7, now faces resistance from the base of the broken 2017

bull channel at $1267.8. Will need back above here, before any real upside

interest will appear. Nearest support in the meantime, rises to $1247.6.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]