MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Correction Continues, $1.1921-$1.1881 Next Band Of

Support

*RES 4: $1.2089/93 Jan 4, Sep 8 highs

*RES 3: $1.2051/52 Hourly recovery highs Jan 5

*RES 2: $1.2021 Jan 5 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1980/85 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1921 @1808GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1916/21 Intraday low, 61.8% of $1.1817-$1.2089

*SUP 2: $1.1902/10 Dec 20, Dec 27 highs, now support

*SUP 3: $1.1881 76.4% Fibo of $1.1817-$1.2089

*SUP 4: $1.1863/74 Dec 14 high, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Key support from the $1.1993 area gave way on Monday, as did

$1.1980-85, the 38.2% Fibo retrace of the recent $1.1817-$1.2089 rise. This

allows a deeper correction of those gains, which with today's loss of $1.1953,

puts $1.1921-$1.1881 in the shop window. Meanwhile, after failing to trouble

$1.2093 and the upper 1% volatility band at the end of last week, resistance

comes from $1.1980-$1.2021 but requiring back above $1.2052 for impact.

CABLE TECHS: Rally Again Comes A Cropper Around $1.3585 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.3717 3 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: $1.3655/59 1% volatility band, Sep 20 high

*RES 2: $1.3613 Jan 3 high

*RES 1: $1.3585/86 Hourly resistance, Jan 8 high

*PRICE: $1.3527 @1813GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3506 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.3494/95 Jan 3 low, hourly base Dec 29

*SUP 3: $1.3457/67 Dec 28, Dec 14 highs, now support

*SUP 4: $1.3419/21 Dec 18, Dec 20 highs, now support

*COMMENTARY* Support found around $1.3495 last week, $1.3506 this, so far

keeping the focus away from the Dec 14 high at $1.3467, above which any setback

should really hold now, if near term upside momentum is to be retained. In this

respect, attention now switches back to $1.3585 initially, the upper 1%

volatility band, which could well feature higher, now rises to $1.3655, above

last Wednesday's $1.3613 high, where it joins last year's $1.3659 peak.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Key Y112.40-Y112.35 Support Stands Up To Initial Test

*RES 4: Y113.75/82 Dec 12 high, 76.4% of Y114.74-Y110.84

*RES 3: Y113.64 Dec 21 high

*RES 2: Y113.38/39 Dec 27, Jan 8 highs

*RES 1: Y112.97/18 Hourly resistance, intraday high

*PRICE: Y112.63 @1818GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.35/40 Congestion area Jan 2-3

*SUP 2: Y112.03/06 Dec 15, Jan 2 lows

*SUP 3: Y111.95 61.8% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75, Dec 15 low

*SUP 4: Y111.53 76.4% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75

*COMMENTARY* Friday's rally was interrupted at Y113.39 in the midst of congested

resistance ahead of the 76.4% Fibo retrace at Y113.82. The subsequent fall has

now reached into the significant Y112.40-Y112.35 area. This now seen as the

protection against a loss of Y112.06-Y112.03 and for a Y111.95-Y111.53 fall. In

the meantime, Y112.97 and today's opening high of Y113.18 provide initial

resistance to another attempt to scale that Y113.38-Y113.82 area.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Pullback Continues, Nears Key Y133.94-Y133.80 Area

*RES 4: Y135.98 Jan 5 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y135.48/49 Intraday high, hourly high Jan 8

*RES 2: Y135.02 Intraday hourly recovery high

*RES 1: Y134.70/80 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y134.25 @1827GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.91/94 Dec 22 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: Y133.80 61.8% Fibo of Y132.05-Y136.64

*SUP 3: Y133.13 76.4% Fibo of Y132.05-Y136.64

*SUP 4: Y132.95 5 month rising support line

*COMMENTARY* The fall from Friday's Y136.64 high, where the rally was chasing

the shadow of the upper 1% volatility band, has been swift, expedited by the

early loss of Y135.16-Y135.13 today and then subsequently Y134.34. This now

exposes the next support of note from between 133.94-Y133.80, the former the

current level of the lower 1% band today. In the interim, resistance from

Y134.70-Y135.02 but back above Y135.49 needed to generate upside interest.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8810-Stg0.8805 Now Protects Against Deeper Correction

*RES 4: Stg0.8925 1.618 swing Stg0.8891-Stg0.8836, Jan 4 hi

*RES 3: Stg0.8900 Congestion area Jan 5

*RES 2: Stg0.8880 Jan 4 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Stg0.8855/65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8814 @1832GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8805/10 Congestion area mid December

*SUP 2: Stg0.8778/79 1% vol band, 61.8% Stg0.8689-Stg0.8925 

*SUP 3: Stg0.8761 Dec 14 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8745 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8689-Stg0.8925

*COMMENTARY* Rally moved above initial Stg0.8900-Stg0.8916 resistance last week

but was eventually curtailed by the slightly higher swing target at Stg0.8925.

In the meantime, nearest support from Stg0.8880-Stg0.8865 was lost, followed by

Stg0.8848-Stg0.8836 on Monday. This leaving the downside vulnerable with

Stg0.8810-Stg0.8805 now the protection against a deeper correction of gains from

last month's Stg0.8689 base. Resistance initially Stg0.8855-Stg0.8865.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2484 Resistance As Recovery Attempt Grows

*RES 4: $1.2590 Dec 29 high

*RES 3: $1.2556 Jan 4 high

*RES 2: $1.2514 Jan 5 high

*RES 1: $1.2478/84 Intraday high, initial low Jan 5

*PRICE: $1.2459 @1839GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2398/10 Intraday low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2355/78 Jan 5, Jan 8 lows

*SUP 3: $1.2315 Max 5th wave tgt in fall from $1.2921

*SUP 4: $1.2291 3 week bear channel base projection

*COMMENTARY* Friday saw a one day fall from one side of the 3 week bear channel

to the other. A low of $1.2355 seen so far. The parameters of this channel have

moved again today, the top now coming in at $1.2450, to join Monday's recovery

high. The move back through here is a first positive step but likely needing

back above $1.2484 before any real benefit will follow. Meanwhile,

$1.2410-$1.2378 now protects the downside from another test.

GOLD TECHS: Rally Falters On Approach To Fibo Resistance At $1329.1

*RES 4: $1357.7 Sep 4 high

*RES 3: $1334.8 Sep 13 high

*RES 2: $1329.1 76.4% Fibo of $1357.7-$1236.6

*RES 1: $1326.1 Jan 4 high

*PRICE: $1312.6 @1845GMT

*SUP 1: $1305.9 Jan 4 low

*SUP 2: $1289.2 Dec 27 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1281.4 Dec 27 low

*SUP 4: $1276.3 Dec 22 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* The move above $1267.8 triggered immediate upside interest, further

aided by the recovery through the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5. This

makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from last September look like a three wave

correction. We have subsequently broken through $1311.4-$1313.8 resistance. A

sustained hold above and look to $1329.1 as the next target. Meanwhile, support

from $1305.9 now protects against any corrective potential.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]