MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Correction Continues, Risk Remains Lower While $1.1985

Caps

*RES 4: $1.2089/93 Jan 4, Sep 8 highs

*RES 3: $1.2051/52 Hourly recovery highs Jan 5

*RES 2: $1.2021 Jan 5 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1975/85 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1944 @0918GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1916/21 Jan 9 low, 61.8% of $1.1817-$1.2089

*SUP 2: $1.1902/10 Dec 20, Dec 27 highs, now support

*SUP 3: $1.1877/81 1% vol band, 76.4% of $1.1817-$1.2089

*SUP 4: $1.1852/63 2 month rising s/line, Dec 14 high

*COMMENTARY* Pressure on the 61.8% Fibo retrace level on Tuesday resulted in a

slightly lower $1.1916 fall, before rallying on the back of some oversold hourly

conditions. To be of any substance, will need to see a move back above

$1.1975-$1.1985 initially, this potentially allowing a higher $1.2021-$1.2052

rise, where tougher questions are then asked. While $1.1985 caps, immediate risk

is still for lower, where below $1.1916 sees congested support above $1.1852.

CABLE TECHS: Risk Still Lower While $1.3585-86 Caps Rallies

*RES 4: $1.3729 3 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: $1.3659/66 Sep 20 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.3613 Jan 3 high

*RES 1: $1.3585/86 Hourly resistance, Jan 8 high

*PRICE: $1.3516 @0926GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3506 Jan 9 low

*SUP 2: $1.3494/95 Jan 3 low, hourly base Dec 29

*SUP 3: $1.3457/67 Dec 28, Dec 14 highs, now support

*SUP 4: $1.3419/21 Dec 18, Dec 20 highs, now support

*COMMENTARY* Support found around $1.3495 last week, $1.3506 this, so far

keeping the focus away from the Dec 14 high at $1.3467, above which any setback

should really hold now, if near term upside momentum is to be retained. In this

respect, attention now switches back to $1.3585 initially, back above here is

required before immediate bias can return to the Jan 3 high at $1.3613 and a

better attempt to reach and test last year's $1.3659 high.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Loss Of Y112.03 Sees Y111.53 Support Next In The Spotlight

*RES 4: Y112.78 Intraday high

*RES 3: Y112.50/55 Congestion area Jan 9

*RES 2: Y112.37/38 Jan 9 low, intraday hourly recovery high

*RES 1: Y112.10/15 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y111.77 @0940GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.53 76.4% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75, 1% vol band

*SUP 2: Y111.24 1.618 swing of Y112.06-Y113.39

*SUP 3: Y111.04 1.618 swing of Y112.03-Y113.64

*SUP 4: Y110.84 Nov 27 low

*COMMENTARY* Continued falling recovery highs have now resulted in a drop below

Y112.06-Y112.03 support. This brings into focus the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

Y111.53, where the lower 1% volatility band also currently resides. Any lower

and can allow an overshoot to two recent swing targets at Y111.24 and Y111.04

respectively. These present the last protection to the Nov 27 low at Y110.84.

Meanwhile, Y112.10-Y112.38 resistance the bar to any near term recovery.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Pullback Continues, Y133.26-Y133.00 Next Target Zone

*RES 4: Y135.02/13 Jan 9 recovery high, Jan 8 low

*RES 3: Y134.56/65 Hourly base Jan 9, intraday high

*RES 2: Y134.20 Intraday hourly recovery highs

*RES 1: Y133.97/05 Initial intraday low, Jan 9 low

*PRICE: Y133.51 @1012GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.26 61.8% Fibo of Y131.17-Y136.64

*SUP 2: Y133.00/13 5 month s/line, 76.4% of Y132.05-Y136.64

*SUP 3: Y132.46 76.4% Fibo of Y131.17-Y136.64, 2% vol band

*SUP 4: Y132.29 4 month bear channel base projection

*COMMENTARY* The fall from last Friday's Y136.64 high continues, losing support

from the lower 1% volatility band at 133.83 today, as well as the initial 61.8%

Fibo retrace level at Y133.80. This brings into focus Y133.26-Y133.00 as the

next potential downside target area. This a combination of two further Fibo

retrace levels and the 5 month rising support line. In the meantime, look to

Y133.97-Y134.05 for resistance but back above Y134.20 likely needed for respite.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8810-Stg0.8805 Protects Against Deeper Correction

*RES 4: Stg0.8925 1.618 swing Stg0.8891-Stg0.8836, Jan 4 hi

*RES 3: Stg0.8900 Congestion area Jan 5

*RES 2: Stg0.8880 Jan 4 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Stg0.8855/65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8846 @1015GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8805/10 Congestion area mid December

*SUP 2: Stg0.8775/79 1% vol band, 61.8% Stg0.8689-Stg0.8925 

*SUP 3: Stg0.8761 Dec 14 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8745 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8689-Stg0.8925

*COMMENTARY* Rally moved above initial Stg0.8900-Stg0.8916 resistance last week

but was eventually curtailed by the slightly higher swing target at Stg0.8925.

In the meantime, nearest support from Stg0.8880-Stg0.8865 was lost, followed by

Stg0.8848-Stg0.8836 on Monday. This leaving the downside vulnerable with

Stg0.8810-Stg0.8805 now the protection against a deeper correction of gains from

last month's Stg0.8689 base. Resistance initially Stg0.8855-Stg0.8865.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2484 Resistance As Recovery Attempt Grows

*RES 4: $1.2590 Dec 29 high

*RES 3: $1.2556 Jan 4 high

*RES 2: $1.2514 Jan 5 high

*RES 1: $1.2478/84 Jan 9 high, initial low Jan 5

*PRICE: $1.2462 @1029GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2398/10 Jan 9 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2355/78 Jan 5 low, 1% volatility band, Jan 8 low 

*SUP 3: $1.2315 Max 5th wave tgt in fall from $1.2921

*SUP 4: $1.2264 76.4% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921

*COMMENTARY* Having survived a test to the base of the 3 week bear channel last

Friday, we have subsequently seen a slow recovery which so far remains below the

initial resistance of note at $1.2484. Will need back through here to generate

further upside interest and a better correction of recent losses from the mid

December high at $1.2921. In the interim, support from $1.2410-$1.2372 protects

against a fresh downside push with $1.2315-$1.2264 the targets below $1.2355.

GOLD TECHS: Rally Falters On Approach To Fibo Resistance At $1329.1

*RES 4: $1357.7 Sep 4 high

*RES 3: $1334.8 Sep 13 high

*RES 2: $1329.1 76.4% Fibo of $1357.7-$1236.6

*RES 1: $1326.1 Jan 4 high

*PRICE: $1316.8 @1030GMT

*SUP 1: $1305.9 Jan 4 low

*SUP 2: $1289.2 Dec 27 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1281.4 Dec 27 low

*SUP 4: $1276.3 Dec 22 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* The move above $1267.8 triggered immediate upside interest, further

aided by the recovery through the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5. This

makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from last September look like a three wave

correction. We have subsequently broken through $1311.4-$1313.8 resistance. A

sustained hold above and look to $1329.1 as the next target. Meanwhile, support

from $1305.9 now protects against any corrective potential.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]