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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Downside Pressure Resumes After Rally Falters Below
*RES 4: $1.2089/93 Jan 4, Sep 8 high
*RES 3: $1.2051/52 Hourly recovery highs Jan 5
*RES 2: $1.2018/21 Jan 10 high, Jan 5 low
*RES 1: $1.1975/85 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1939 @0935GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1910/16 Dec 27 high, Jan 9 low
*SUP 2: $1.1902 Dec 20 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1.1879/81 1% vol band, 76.4% of $1.1817-$1.2089
*SUP 4: $1.1853/59 Swing $1.1916-$1.2018, 2 month s/line
*COMMENTARY* Pressure on the 61.8% Fibo retrace level on Tuesday resulted in a
slightly lower $1.1916 fall, before rallying on the back of some oversold hourly
conditions. The subsequent move back above $1.1975-$1.1985 has helped to relieve
some of this pressure but has faltered at the base of higher $1.2021-$1.2052
resistance, where tougher questions are asked. Back below $1.1916-$1.1910 and
look for a dip into the congested $1.1902-$1.1853 area next.
CABLE TECHS: Failure Below $1.3585 Heaps Pressure Back On The Downside
*RES 4: $1.3613 Jan 3 high
*RES 3: $1.3585/86 Jan 9, Jan 8 highs
*RES 2: $1.3562 Jan 10 high
*RES 1: $1.3530/40 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3491 @0950GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3457/67 Dec 28, Dec 14 highs, now support
*SUP 2: $1.3419/21 Dec 18, Dec 20 highs, now support
*SUP 3: $1.3400 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.3376 76.4% Fibo of $1.3302-$1.3613
*COMMENTARY* The failure to move back above $1.3585 resistance has been the
catalyst for the subsequent fall, which by losing previous $1.3482 support, now
puts pressure on the $1.3467-$1.3457 area. Ideally have to hold above here in
order to retain recent upside momentum, garnered since the hold at $1.3302 last
month. Loss would open way for $1.3421-$1.3376 next. In the meantime,
$1.3530-$1.3562 stands in the way of any recovery.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y111.24-Y111.04 Support Protects Y110.84 November Low
*RES 4: Y112.50/55 Congestion area Jan 9
*RES 3: Y112.37/38 Jan 9 low, Jan 10 hourly recovery high
*RES 2: Y112.17 Initial low Jan 10, now resistance
*RES 1: Y111.82/88 Hourly resistance, intraday high
*PRICE: Y111.64 @0955GMT
*SUP 1: Y111.24/27 1.618 swing Y112.06-Y113.39, Jan 10 low
*SUP 2: Y111.04 1.618 swing of Y112.03-Y113.64
*SUP 3: Y110.84 Nov 27 low
*SUP 4: Y110.28 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* A further downside push saw dual support from the Y111.53 area give
way on Wednesday. As previously suggested, then any lower and have to allow an
overshoot to two recent swing targets at Y111.24 and Y111.04 respectively. These
present the last protection to the Nov 27 low at Y110.84. Meanwhile,
Y111.82-Y111.88 now provides immediate resistance but eyes are probably on the
higher Y112.17-Y112.38 region before any chance of a real recovery.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Pullback Continues, Testing 5 Month Rising Support Line
*RES 4: Y134.85 Hourly congestion Jan 9
*RES 3: Y134.56 Jan 10 high
*RES 2: Y134.20 Jan 10 hourly recovery highs
*RES 1: Y133.91/05 Initial intraday low, Jan 9 low
*PRICE: Y133.40 @1010GMT
*SUP 1: Y133.05/13 5 month s/line, 76.4% of Y132.05-Y136.64
*SUP 2: Y132.46 76.4% Fibo of Y131.17-Y136.64
*SUP 3: Y132.32 4 month bear channel base, 2% vol band
*SUP 4: Y132.05 Dec 15 low
*COMMENTARY* The fall from last Friday's Y136.64 high continues, losing support
from the lower 1% volatility band, which is at 133.68 today. This brings into
focus Y133.13-Y133.05 as the next potential downside target area. This a
combination of a further Fibo retrace level and the 5 month rising support line.
Lose here and then not much ahead of Y132.46-Y132.32. In the meantime, look to
Y133.91-Y134.05 for resistance but back above Y134.20 likely needed for respite.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Recovery Still Faces Stg0.8880-Stg0.8900 Resistance
*RES 4: Stg0.8950/51 1% vol band, 76.4% of 0.9032-0.8689
*RES 3: Stg0.8925 1.618 swing Stg0.8891-Stg0.8836, Jan 4 hi
*RES 2: Stg0.8900 Congestion area Jan 5
*RES 1: Stg0.8873/80 Jan 10 high, Jan 4 low
*PRICE: Stg0.8852 @1016GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8825/35 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8805/10 Congestion area mid December
*SUP 3: Stg0.8772/79 1% vol band, 61.8% Stg0.8689-Stg0.8925 
*SUP 4: Stg0.8761 Dec 14 low
*COMMENTARY* Rally moved above initial Stg0.8900-Stg0.8916 resistance last week
but was eventually curtailed by the slightly higher swing target at Stg0.8925.
In the meantime, nearest support from Stg0.8880-Stg0.8865 was lost, followed by
Stg0.8848-Stg0.8836 on Monday. This leaving the downside vulnerable with
Stg0.8810-Stg0.8805 now the protection against a deeper correction of gains from
last month's Stg0.8689 base. Resistance now Stg0.8880-Stg0.8900.
     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Accelerates After Return Above 3 Week Bear Channel
*RES 4: $1.2755 2% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.2698/05 Dec 22 low, 61.8% Fibo of $1.2921-$1.2355
*RES 2: $1.2630/38 1% vol band, 50% Fibo of $1.2921-$1.2355
*RES 1: $1.2590/91 Dec 29, intraday highs
*PRICE: $1.2561 @1040GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2520/30 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2495 Initial recovery high Jan 10, now support
*SUP 3: $1.2465/75 Congestion area Jan 9-10
*SUP 4: $1.2427 Jan 10 low
*COMMENTARY* Having survived a test to the base of the 3 week bear channel last
Friday, yesterday saw the recovery accelerate, after returning above the 3 week
channel top earlier in the day. A high of $1.2591 attained so far, just above
the last high of note on Dec 29. Not surprisingly has become overbought in the
near term, $1.2530-$1.2495 providing an immediate support area. Loss of $1.2465
would concern now. Above $1.2591 and the 1% volatility band provides next test.
GOLD TECHS: Rally Needs Impetus Of Break Above Fibo Resistance At $1329.1
*RES 4: $1367.3 Aug 1 high
*RES 3: $1357.7 Sep 4 high
*RES 2: $1334.8 Sep 13 high
*RES 1: $1329.1 76.4% Fibo of $1357.7-$1236.6
*PRICE: $1319.5 @1047GMT
*SUP 1: $1305.9 Jan 4 low
*SUP 2: $1289.2 Dec 27 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1281.4 Dec 27 low
*SUP 4: $1276.3 Dec 22 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* The move above $1267.8 triggered immediate upside interest, further
aided by the recovery through the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5. This
makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from last September look like a three wave
correction. We have subsequently broken through $1311.4-$1313.8 resistance. A
sustained hold above and look to $1329.1 as the next target. Meanwhile, support
from $1305.9 now protects against any corrective potential.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: