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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Break Above $1.2093 Has $1.2141-$1.2196 Potential
*RES 4: $1.2196 1.618 swing of $1.2089-$1.1916
*RES 3: $1.2181 10 week bull channel top projection
*RES 2: $1.2167 50% Fibo of $1.3994-$1.0340
*RES 1: $1.2141 1% volatility band
*PRICE: $1.2123 @0928GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.2060/70 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2018/28 Jan 10 high, hourly base Jan 11
*SUP 3: $1.1965/70 Hourly highs/low Jan 11
*SUP 4: $1.1910/16 Dec 27 high, Jan 9 low
*COMMENTARY* The move back through $1.2052 switched the bias back to the topside
and for an assault on $1.2089-$1.2093 resistance. This has successfully followed
today, the next resistance to note now coming from the upper 1% volatility band
at $1.2141 and then the longer term 50% Fibo retrace level at $1.2167. Any
higher and look to $1.2181-$1.2196 next. Support, moves up to $1.2070-$1.2060,
loss would be the first indication of some deeper correction required.
CABLE TECHS: Focus On 2017 Peak As Upside Confidence Grows
*RES 4: $1.3741 3 month bull channel top projection.
*RES 3: $1.3709 1.618 swing of $1.3613-$1.3458
*RES 2: $1.3686 1% volatility band
*RES 1: $1.3645/59 Hourly resistance, Sep 20-2017 high
*PRICE: $1.3617 @0944GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3580/90 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3555/65 Hourly congestion Jan 11-12
*SUP 3: $1.3538 Intraday low
*SUP 4: $1.3498 Initial recovery high Jan 11, now support
*COMMENTARY* Those who were writing cable off yesterday were not giving credit
to the power of $1.3457-$1.3467 support. A low of $1.3458 before rising swiftly
and eventually through that previously troublesome $1.3585 resistance. Having
subsequently broken above the year's prior $1.3613 high then focus will centre
on last year's $1.3659 peak, although there may be some interim resistance from
$1.3645. Support $1.3590-$1.3555 only below the latter will caution.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y111.04 Swing Target Now Protects Y110.84 November Low
*RES 4: Y112.37 Jan 9 low, now resistance
*RES 3: Y112.03/06 Dec 15, Jan 2 lows, now resistance
*RES 2: Y111.88 Jan 11 high
*RES 1: Y111.45/65 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y111.06 @0956GMT
*SUP 1: Y111.00/04 Intraday low, 1.618 swing Y112.03-Y113.64
*SUP 2: Y110.84 Nov 27 low
*SUP 3: Y110.15 61.8% Fibo of Y107.32-Y114.74
*SUP 4: Y110.09 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* A further downside push saw dual support from the Y111.53 area give
way on Wednesday. As previously suggested, then any lower and have to allow an
overshoot to two recent swing targets between Y111.24 and Y111.04 respectively.
These present the last protection to the Nov 27 low at Y110.84. Meanwhile,
Y111.45-Y111.65 now provides immediate resistance but eyes are probably on the
higher Y111.88 region before any chance of a real recovery.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Rallies After Test To 5 Month Rising Support Line
*RES 4: Y136.39 1% volatility band
*RES 3: Y135.79 76.4% Fibo of Y136.64-Y133.05
*RES 2: Y135.27 61.8% Fibo of Y136.64-Y133.05
*RES 1: Y134.85 Hourly congestion Jan 9
*PRICE: Y134.72 @1008GMT
*SUP 1: Y134.10/15 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y133.95 Intraday low
*SUP 3: Y133.45 Hourly congestion area Jan 11
*SUP 4: Y133.05/11 Jan 10 low, 5 month support line
*COMMENTARY* Found support from the dual Y133.05-Y133.10 area on Thursday.
Mainly due to a bounce from the 5 month rising support line. The subsequent
rally back through Y134.20-Y134.56 has begun a correction of recent losses from
the Jan 5 high at Y136.64. Next up is the congested Y134.85 area, above which
would allow a higher Y135.27-Y135.79 rise. As a result, nearest support comes
from Y134.15-Y134.10, ahead of the day's Y133.95 low.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Recovery Sees Assault On Previous Stg0.8925 High
*RES 4: Stg0.8997 1.618 swing of Stg0.8925-Stg0.8809
*RES 3: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high
*RES 2: Stg0.8951/57 76.4% of 0.9032-0.8689, 1% vol band
*RES 1: Stg0.8925/30 Jan 4, intraday highs
*PRICE: Stg0.8905 @1018GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8884 Hourly base Jan 11
*SUP 2: Stg0.8873 Jan 10 high, now support
*SUP 3: Stg0.8855/60 Hourly congestion Jan 10-11
*SUP 4: Stg0.8840 Hourly low Jan 10
*COMMENTARY* Having held into the key Stg0.8805-Stg0.8810 support area this
week, yesterday saw an extension of the recovery begun on Wednesday with the
rally to Stg0.8873. Thursday's further rise through here and Stg0.8900 is again
encouraging, now needing to sustain a move through here, to be in a place to
challenge Stg0.8925 again. Support rises to Stg0.8884-Stg0.8873, with
Stg0.8860-Stg0.8855 currently of more importance lower.
     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Recovery Hits A Wall At Previous $1.2590 High
*RES 4: $1.2698/05 Dec 22 low, 61.8% Fibo of $1.2921-$1.2355
*RES 3: $1.2620/38 1% vol band, 50% Fibo of $1.2921-$1.2355
*RES 2: $1.2590/91 Dec 29, Jan 11 highs
*RES 1: $1.2560/70 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2520 @1027GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2495 Initial recovery high Jan 10, now support
*SUP 2: $1.2465/75 Congestion area Jan 9-10
*SUP 3: $1.2416/27 Initial high Jan 5, Jan 10 low
*SUP 4: $1.2371 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Having survived a test to the base of the 3 week bear channel last
Friday, Wednesday saw the recovery accelerate, after returning above the 3 week
channel top earlier in the day. A high of $1.2591 attained so far, just above
the last high of note on Dec 29. Not surprisingly has become overbought in the
near term, $1.2495 providing an immediate support area. Loss of $1.2465 would
concern now. Above $1.2591 and the 1% volatility band provides next test.
GOLD TECHS: $1334.8-$1337.1 Next Targets After Break Of Fibo Resistance
*RES 4: $1367.3 Aug 1 high
*RES 3: $1357.7 Sep 4 high
*RES 2: $1337.1 1.618 swing of $1326.1-$1308.3
*RES 1: $1334.8 Sep 13 high
*PRICE: $1332.4 @1045GMT
*SUP 1: $1314.7 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1308.3 Jan 10 low
*SUP 3: $1305.9 Jan 4 low
*SUP 4: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the
upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from
last September look like a three wave correction. We have comfortably held above
$1305.9 support over the last week or so. Today's break above Fibo resistance at
$1329.1 now brings $1334.8-$1337.1 into play next, as we make our way back
towards the Sep 4 high at $1357.7. Support $1314.7-$1308.3.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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