-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Global Macro Weekly -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Correcting After Rally Reaches Upper 2% Volatility Band
*RES 4: $1.2376 1.618x $1.1554-$1.1961 from $1.1717
*RES 3: $1.2329 Oct 2008 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $1.2311 2% volatility band
*RES 1: $1.2297 Jan 15 high
*PRICE: $1.2237 @0903GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2205/15 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2145/55 Hourly low/high Jan 12
*SUP 3: $1.2089/93 Jan 4, Sep 8 lows, now resistance
*SUP 4: $1.2059 Jan 11 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* The rally peaked at $1.2297 on Monday, basically in line with a
test to the upper 2% volatility band. This has moved slightly higher by time
today to $1.2311. Currently correcting some near term overbought conditions,
first clues likely to come from the $1.2215-$1.2205 area. Loss here will caution
and suggest some deeper correction of gains from last week's $1.1916 low is
required, beginning with $1.2155-$1.2145.
CABLE TECHS: $1.3825-$1.3885 Remains Next Upside Target Area
*RES 4: $1.3883/85 38.2% $1.7192-$1.1838,50% $1.5932-$1.1838
*RES 3: $1.3853 2 month bull channel top projection
*RES 2: $1.3836 Feb 2016 low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.3825 Equality rise from $1.3302 to $1.3017-$1.3550
*PRICE: $1.3786 @0921GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3750/60 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3725/30 Hourly base Jan 12, Jan 15 low
*SUP 3: $1.3677 Hourly low Jan 12
*SUP 4: $1.3659 Sep 20 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Reached $1.3820 on Monday, just shy of the equality rise target at
$1.3825, before giving up some ground. This is helping to reduce the overbought
state of hourly conditions, with nearest support still located between
$1.3760-$1.3750. Below and the $1.3730-$1.3725 area fends off what could be a
deeper correction of gains seen from last week's $1.3458 base. Above $1.3825 and
main target remains 1.3883-$1.3885, where the 2% volatility band also resides.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Pressure Will Continue While Y111.19-Y111.45 Caps Rallies
*RES 4: Y111.70 Jan 12 high
*RES 3: Y111.40/45 Congestion area Jan 10-12
*RES 2: Y111.19 Jan 15 high
*RES 1: Y110.98 Intraday high
*PRICE: Y110.69 @0932GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.33/40 Jan 15 low, hourly support
*SUP 2: Y110.15 61.8% Fibo of Y107.32-Y114.74
*SUP 3: Y109.79 Equality fall from Y113.69 to Y114.74-Y110.84
*SUP 4: Y109.73/76 2% vol band, 11 week bear channel base
*COMMENTARY* Monday's fall extended slightly below hourly support at Y110.40, a
low of Y110.33 before bouncing to correct some near term oversold conditions.
While this remains below Y111.19 initially and more importantly Y111.40-45, then
this remains just corrective. Below Y110.33 and the 61.8% Fibo retrace at
Y110.15 is the next protection against a deeper Y109.93-Y109.73 fall. The latter
the current level of the lower 2% volatility band.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Backs Away From Congested Resistance Within The Y136's
*RES 4: Y136.85 4 month bull channel top projection
*RES 3: Y136.64 Jan 5 high
*RES 2: Y136.49 1% volatility band
*RES 1: Y136.10 Jan 15 high
*PRICE: Y135.39 @0939GMT
*SUP 1: Y135.15/25 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y134.83/93 Hourly base Jan 12, 38.2% Y133.05-Y136.10
*SUP 3: Y134.58 Hourly low Jan 12
*SUP 4: Y134.16 Initial high Jan 12, now support
*COMMENTARY* Found support from the dual Y133.05-Y133.10 area last Thursday.
Mainly due to a bounce from the 5 month rising support line. The subsequent
rally back through Y134.20-Y134.56 began a correction of recent losses from the
Jan 5 high at Y136.64, Monday's rise through Y135.79 once again sees the topside
focus on still congested resistance from between Y136.10-Y136.85. Will need to
escape the latter before real confidence will grow. Support Y135.15-Y134.83.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8925-Stg0.8930 Still The Resistance To Break
*RES 4: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high
*RES 3: Stg0.8951/55 76.4% of 0.9032-0.8689, 1% vol band
*RES 2: Stg0.8925/30 Jan 4, Jan 12 highs
*RES 1: Stg0.8910/13 Jan 15, Jan 11 highs
*PRICE: Stg0.8881 @0943GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8855/60 Hourly congestion Jan 10-11
*SUP 2: Stg0.8840 Hourly low Jan 10
*SUP 3: Stg0.8827 Initial recovery high Jan 10, now support
*SUP 4: Stg0.8809 Jan 9 low
*COMMENTARY* Having held into the key Stg0.8805-Stg0.8810 support area last
week, began a recovery which saw an extension through Stg0.8873-Stg0.8900. Once
again ran into resistance from our old friend Stg0.8925-Stg0.8930 and it is
through here that is still required before thoughts can turn to the higher
Stg0.8951-Stg0.8981 region. Support comes from Stg0.8860-Stg0.8855 with
Stg0.8840 currently still of more importance lower.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2447-$1.2472 Provides Resistance To Recovery
*RES 4: $1.2590/91 Dec 29, Jan 11 highs
*RES 3: $1.2556 Jan 12 high
*RES 2: $1.2520 Hourly congestion Jan 11-12
*RES 1: $1.2447/72 Hourly resistance, Jan 15 high
*PRICE: $1.2427 @0955GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2403/11 Jan 15 low, 76.4% of $1.2355-$1.2591
*SUP 2: $1.2377 Hourly support
*SUP 3: $1.2345/55 1% volatility band, Jan 5 low
*SUP 4: $1.2313 Previously broken 4 week resistance line
*COMMENTARY* Has continued to fall since the recovery was halted at $1.2591 last
week. The subsequent drop tested the resolve of support from the 76.4% Fibo
retrace level at $1.2411 on Monday. A low of $1.2403 seen before some near term
oversold conditions prompted a bounce. Look to $1.2447-$1.2472 for initial
resistance, above needed before the chance of a higher $1.2520-$1.2556 bounce.
Below $1.2403 and anticipate pressure back on $1.2377-$1.2345.
GOLD TECHS: Focus Now On Last September's $1357.7 High
*RES 4: $1375.4 Jul 8 2016 high
*RES 3: $1367.3 Aug 1 high
*RES 2: $1357.7 Sep 4 high
*RES 1: $1344.8 Jan 15 high
*PRICE: $1334.3 @1000GMT
*SUP 1: $1330.9 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1326.1 Jan 4 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1315.8 Jan 11 low
*SUP 4: $1308.3 Jan 10 low
*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the
upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from
last September look like a three wave correction. We have comfortably held
above $1305.9 support over the last couple of weeks. Last Friday's break through
$1334.8-$1337.1 the next upside boost, as we make our way back towards the Sep 4
high at $1357.7. Support $1330.9-$1326.1 keeps immediate bias higher.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.