MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Still Respecting Channel Top & Upper 2% Volatility

Band

*RES 4: $1.2376 1.618x $1.1554-$1.1961 from $1.1717

*RES 3: $1.2323/29 Oct 2008 low, 3 month bull channel proj'n

*RES 2: $1.2288 Hourly recovery high Jan 117

*RES 1: $1.2250/60 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2213 @0948GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2165 Jan 17 low, hourly high/low Jan 12

*SUP 2: $1.2089/93 Jan 4, Sep 8 highs, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2059/67 Jan 11 high, initial high Jan 12

*SUP 4: $1.2018 Jan 10 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Still tilting it's cap to both the 3 month bull channel top and

also the upper 2% volatility band. These today are at $1.2329 and $1.2347

respectively. After reaching $1.2323 on Wednesday, some extremely overbought

hourly conditions have produced a $1.2165 pullback. This a 38.2% Fibo retrace of

recent gains from $1.1916. While above, look to $1.2250-60 and more importantly

$1.2288 for clues. Need back above the latter to reduce further downside risk.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3800-$1.3757 Becomes Key Support Area

*RES 4: $1.4050 1.618 swing of $1.3659-$1.3027

*RES 3: $1.4021 13 month bull channel top projection

*RES 2: $1.3943/46 Jan 17 high, 2% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.3890/10 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3841 @1005GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3800 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3742/57 Jan 16, Jan 17 lows

*SUP 3: $1.3693 Hourly high Jan 12, now support

*SUP 4: $1.3659 Sep 20 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Rally extended through key $1.3883-$1.3885 Fibo resistance on

Wednesday. Reaching a high of $1.3943 and testing the upper 2% volatility band,

before retreating just as quickly. Has settled so far, just above initial

$1.3800 support, this and $1.3757-$1.3742 now become important support and key

to retaining recent upside momentum. Meanwhile, hourly resistance comes from

$1.3890-$1.3910, failure to regain the latter would concern.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Correcting Recent Losses After Y110.15 Fibo Level Holds

*RES 4: Y112.06/17 Jan 2 low, 61.8% of Y113.39-Y110.19

*RES 3: Y111.88 Jan 11 high

*RES 2: Y111.70 Jan 12 high

*RES 1: Y111.45/48 Congestion area Jan 10-12, intraday high

*PRICE: Y111.33 @1018GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.50/60 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y110.15/19 61.8% f Y107.32-Y114.74, Jan 17 low

*SUP 3: Y109.79 Equality fall from Y113.69 to Y114.74-Y110.84

*SUP 4: Y109.44 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Has found support from the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Y110.15, the

subsequent rally now correcting some of the recent losses from last week's

Y113.39 high. In this respect, look to Y111.45-Y111.48 for initial resistance,

Y111.70-Y111.88 then the brake to more important Y112.06-Y112.17 levels. As a

consequence, support rises to Y110.60-Y110.50, loss of the latter would caution

now and put pressure back on the downside.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Still Facing Congested Resistance Within The Y136's

*RES 4: Y136.91 4 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: Y136.79 1.618 swing of Y136.10-Y134.98

*RES 2: Y136.53/64 1% volatility band, Jan 5 high

*RES 1: Y136.10 Jan 15 high

*PRICE: Y136.01 @1024GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.30/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y134.93/98 38.2% of Y133.05-Y136.10, Jan 16 low

*SUP 3: Y134.58 Hourly low Jan 12, 50% of Y133.05-Y136.10

*SUP 4: Y134.16/22 Initial high Jan 12, 61.8% Fibo

*COMMENTARY* Found support from the dual Y133.05-Y133.10 area last Thursday.

Mainly due to a bounce from the 5 month rising support line. The subsequent

rally back through Y134.20-Y134.56 began a correction of recent losses from the

Jan 5 high at Y136.64, Monday's rise through Y135.79 once again sees the topside

focus on still congested resistance from between Y136.10-Y136.91. Will need to

escape the latter before real confidence will grow. Support Y135.40-Y134.93.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Pressure Returns To The Stg0.8809-Stg0.8806 Area

*RES 4: Stg0.8909/10 Jan 17, Jan 15 highs

*RES 3: Stg0.8885 Hourly basing area Jan 15-17

*RES 2: Stg0.8870 Hourly congestion Jan 12-16

*RES 1: Stg0.8855 Jan 12 low, now resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8833 @10380GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8806/09 50% Stg0.8689-Stg0.8925, Jan 9, 17 lows

*SUP 2: Stg0.8779 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8689-Stg0.8925

*SUP 3: Stg0.8763 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8744 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8689-Stg0.8925

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from last week's second failure at Stg0.8925 continues.

Wednesday's loss of the pivotal Stg0.8840 level, once again heaping pressure

back on Stg0.8809-Stg0.8806 support. So far this has withstood investigation but

there are now layers of resistance from between here and the now important

Stg0.8909-10 area, that need to be recovered, before the near term bias can

return to the topside. Loss of Stg0.8806, has Stg0.8779-Stg0.8744 potential.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Correction Reaches $1.2542 Before Giving Up Ground

*RES 4: $1.2590/91 Dec 29, Jan 11 highs

*RES 3: $1.2556 Jan 12 high

*RES 2: $1.2542 Jan 17 high

*RES 1: $1.2495/05 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2434 @1046GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2397/03 Jan 16 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2355 Jan 5 low

*SUP 3: $1.2330 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.2264 76.4% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921

*COMMENTARY* Early downside pressure saw a dip to $1.2364 on Wednesday as we

strive to maintain a break below $1.2411 Fibo support. Unable to do this as yet,

the bounce back above $1.2472 resistance has allowed a greater correction of

losses from the Jan 11 high at $1.2591, with a high of $1.2542 on the day.

Meanwhile $1.2403-$1.2397 protects against another push lower, $1.2355 still the

brake to a deeper $1.2330-$1.2264 fall.

GOLD TECHS: $1322.2-$1315.8 Support As Correction Continues

*RES 4: $1367.3 Aug 1 high

*RES 3: $1357.7 Sep 4 high

*RES 2: $1344.8 Jan 15 high

*RES 1: $1340.0 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1329.8 @1055GMT

*SUP 1: $1322.2 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1315.8 Jan 11 low

*SUP 3: $1308.3 Jan 10 low

*SUP 4: $1303.5 38.2% Fibo of $1236.6-$1344.8

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave correction. We have held above $1305.9

support over the last couple of weeks. Last Friday's break through $1337.1 the

next upside boost, as we make our way back towards the Sep 4 high at $1357.7.

Currently correcting some overbought conditions, support $1322.2-$1315.8.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]