MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recoveries Still Capped Around Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2620 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.2598/04 61.8% $1.3994-$1.0340, 3 month res line

*RES 2: $1.2538 Jan 25 high

*RES 1: $1.2490/97 76.4% $1.2538-$1.2335, Jan 26 high, 1% vol

*PRICE: $1.2479 @1830GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2425/30 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2384/85 Hourly base Jan 30, intraday low

*SUP 3: $1.2335 Jan 30 low

*SUP 4: $1.2320/23 Equality fall from $1.2494, Jan 17 high

*COMMENTARY* Still requires a move back through $1.2497-$1.2538 in order to

shake off the negative signals provided by last Thursday's 'Doji' candle close

on the daily chart. The most recent fall has found support from above $1.2384

but with the move back above $1.2475 resistance, now has earlier support from

$1.2430-$1.2425. Directly above $1.2538 will open up the 61.8% Fibo retrace

level at $1.2598 and the 3 month rising resistance line at $1.2604.

CABLE TECHS: Sustained $1.4287 Break Remains Key To Fresh Upside Potential

*RES 4: $1.4399 14 month bull channel top, 2% vol band

*RES 3: $1.4368 61.8% Fibo of $1.5932-$1.1838

*RES 2: $1.4346 Jan 25 high

*RES 1: $1.4287 Jan 26 high

*PRICE: $1.4240 @1833GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4185/00 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.4151/59 Hourly base Jan 31, intraday low

*SUP 3: $1.4122 Jan 31 low

*SUP 4: $1.4075/80 Congestion area Jan 29-30

*COMMENTARY* Saw an earlier challenge into the $1.4260-$1.4287 area. Need to

sustain a break back above the latter, to return near term bias back to the

topside and another assault on $1.4346-$1.4368. Any higher and the 14 month bull

channel top and upper 2% volatility band at $1.4399 would present the next

potential brake higher. Initial support comes from $1.4200-$1.4185, ahead of the

now stronger $1.4159-$1.4151 area.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y109.77-Y109.88 The Next Resistance Barrier To Cross

*RES 4: Y110.49 Jan 19 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y110.19/26 Jan 17 low, 61.8% Fibo of Y111.48-Y108.28

*RES 2: Y109.88 50% Fibo of Y111.48-Y108.28

*RES 1: Y109.77 Jan 26 high

*PRICE: Y109.57 @1834GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.00/10 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.60/62 Jan 31, Jan 29 lows

*SUP 3: Y108.22/27 Sep 11, Aug 29 lows

*SUP 4: Y107.72 1.618 swing of Y108.50-Y109.77

*COMMENTARY* Pushed lower last Friday, breaking below Y108.50 support, a low of

Y108.28, before recovering, aided by some heavily oversold hourly conditions.

Have today moved above Y109.42-Y109.48 resistance but probably need a rally

through Y109.77-Y109.88, before any real upside belief in a better correction

will follow. Y109.00-Y108.60 now protects still decent support from

Y108.27-Y108.22. This safeguards against a further Y107.72-Y107.32 fall.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Recovery Moves Through The Year's high

*RES 4: Y137.65 1.618 swing of Y136.31-Y134.13

*RES 3: Y137.40 Equality rise target from Y134.13

*RES 2: Y137.20 5 month rising resistance line

*RES 1: Y136.85/93 Intraday high, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Y136.74 @1845GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.85/90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y135.65/70 Intraday hourly basing area

*SUP 3: Y135.35/39 Hourly low/high Jan 31

*SUP 4: Y134.75 Hourly base Jan 30

*COMMENTARY* The recovery begun at the beginning of the week, from a test to the

lower 1% volatility band at Y134.14, has now broken through the top of the

recent Y136.31-y136.64 range. This now has the potential for a higher

Y136.93-Y137.20 rise next. Through here and the equality rise target at Y137.40

and the swing target at Y137.65 are next on the agenda. Meanwhile, support from

Y135.90 and then Y135.65 offers near term downside protection.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8760-65 Break Opens Higher Corrective Potential

*RES 4: Stg0.8833/38 Jan 30, 18 highs, 61.8% 0.8930-0.8687

*RES 3: Stg0.8816 Jan 29, Jan 31 highs

*RES 2: Stg0.8785/90 Congestion area Jan 29-31

*RES 1: Stg0.8774 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8766 @1850GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8716/27 Intraday low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8687/89 Jan 25, Dec 8 lows

*SUP 3: Stg0.8676 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery to Stg0.8833 earlier in the week, fell short of higher

resistance from Stg0.8838. The latter the Jan 18 high and a 61.8% Fibo retrace

of the previous Stg0.8930-Stg0.8687 fall. The subsequent fall has been

relatively swift resulting in a challenge and slight break today of pivotal

76.4% Fibo retrace at Stg0.8721. Unable to sustain this as yet, the break back

above resistance Stg0.8760-65 is encouraging, Stg0.8785-Stg0.8816 resistance.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Loses $0.8027, The 8 Week Rising Support Line

*RES 4: $0.8126/36 Sep 8, Jan 26 highs, 1% volatility ban

*RES 3: $0.8114/17 Jan 30, Jan 31 highs

*RES 2: $0.8080/85 Hourly congestion area Jan 29-31

*RES 1: $0.8042/55 Jan 30 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.8033 @1855GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7985 Congestion area Jan 17-23

*SUP 2: $0.7957/67 Jan 23 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $0.7937/42 Jan 16, 17, 18 lows

*SUP 4: $0.7894 38.2% Fibo of $0.7502-$0.8136

*COMMENTARY* The fall from last month's $0.8136 high has gathered pace over the

last couple of days, resulting in a loss of the 8 week rising support line, at

$0.8027 by time today. This puts immediate pressure back on the downside,

beneath which $0.7985-$0.7957 becomes possible. The latter the protection

against a greater $0.7894 drop. In the interim, $0.8042-$0.8055 provides the bar

to any near term recovery process.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Decline Tests Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2435 Jan 22 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2392/00 Jan 25 high, Jan 19 low

*RES 2: $1.2355/65 Congestion area Jan 26-30

*RES 1: $1.2336/48 Hourly resistance, Jan 31 high

*PRICE: $1.2273 @1856GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2244/49 1% volatility band, Jan 31 low

*SUP 2: $1.2214 1.618 swing of $1.2282-$1.2392

*SUP 3: $1.2209 1.618 swing of $1.2355-$1.2591

*SUP 4: $1.2130 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The decline continued on Wednesday, having failed to make any

inroads into $1.2400 resistance. Last week's $1.2282 low gave way, as did the

76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2264. Eventually found a base at $1.2249, in line

with the lower 1% volatility band. This protecting the downside from a further

fall towards two $1.2214-$1.2209 swing targets. Resistance meantime, comes from

$1.2336-$1.2348 and then the congested $1.2355-$1.2365 area.

GOLD TECHS: Correcting Lower After Rally Falters Ahead of $1367.3

*RES 4: $1375.4 July 2016 high

*RES 3: $1366.2/67.3 Jan 25, Aug 1 highs 

*RES 2: $1357.3 Jan 26 high

*RES 1: $1349.0 Jan 30 high

*PRICE: $1346.1 @1856GMT

*SUP 1: $1332.6 Jan 31 low

*SUP 2: $1327.9 Jan 10 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1324.3 Jan 18 low

*SUP 4: $1320.1 76.4% Fibo of $1305.9-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave correction. The subsequent break through

$1337.1 the next upside boost, as we made our way back through the Sep 4 high at

$1357.7. This sees $1367.3-$1375.4 as next resistance ahead of the 38.2% Fibo at

$1380.3. Support moving lower now, $1332.6-$1320.1 the potential pullback area.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]