MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: 5 Week Falling Resistance Line Casts A Shadow

*RES 4: $1.2413 Mar 14 high

*RES 3: $1.2375/85 5 week falling res line, Mar 15 high

*RES 2: $1.2332/59 Initial base Mar 19, Mar 19 high

*RES 1: $1.2300/10 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2283 @0826GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2240 Mar 20 low

*SUP 2: $1.2224 76.4% Fibo of $1.2155-$1.2446

*SUP 3: $1.2186/94 1.618 swing $1.2273-$1.2413, 1% vol band

*SUP 4: $1.2155 Mar 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to give up ground following last Wednesday's test to

the falling resistance line, $1.2413 at the time. This is at $1.2375 today and

is currently considered the main barrier to an upside revival and a fresh

$1.2413-$1.2446 challenge. In the meantime, there is earlier resistance from

between $1.2300-$1.2359. Tuesday's $1.2240 low protects against a deeper

$1.2224-$1.2186 fall, ahead of the month's previous $1.2155 low.

CABLE TECHS: Pullback Holds Into Top Of $1.3980-$1.3950 Support

*RES 4: $1.4133/45 1.618 swing $1.4089-$1.4018, Feb 16 high

*RES 3: $1.4104 61.8% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3712

*RES 2: $1.4085/89 1% volatility band, Mar 19 high

*RES 1: $1.4055/67 Hourly resistance, Mar 20 high

*PRICE: $1.4039 @0835GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3980/83 Hourly support, Mar 20 low

*SUP 2: $1.3950/51 Initial high Mar 16, 2 week support line

*SUP 3: $1.3913 Mar 19 low

*SUP 4: $1.3890 Mar 16 low

*COMMENTARY* The break above $1.3997-$1.4000 on Monday was followed by a further

move through the next bands of resistance from between $1.4029-$1.4070. A high

of $1.4089 seen, just shy of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.4104. Monday's

rise created some near term overbought levels, so with the loss of

$1.4015-$1.3996, support comes initially from $1.3980-$1.3950. Ideally pullbacks

are now held above the latter. Resistance $1.4055-$1.4067.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y106.65-Y106.90 Still Provides Near Term Resistance

*RES 4: Y107.40 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Y107.28/30 76.4% of Y107.91-Y105.25, Mar 13 high

*RES 2: Y106.90 76.4% Fibo of Y107.30-Y105.60

*RES 1: Y106.65 61.8% Fibo of Y107.30-Y105.60

*PRICE: Y106.30 @0838GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.05/10 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y105.79 Mar 15, Mar 19 lows

*SUP 3: Y105.60 Mar 16 low

*SUP 4: Y105.25/28 Mar 2 low, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Y105.70 support was considered pivotal near term and was pressured

by last Friday's dip to Y105.60 before seeing a recovery. So far, this has

reached towards the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Y106.65, as we recoup some of

the losses seen from the month's Y107.30 high. Will likely need to see a move

above the upper 1% volatility band, at Y107.40  however, before any real upside

interest will develop. Support Y106.10-Y105.79 now protects that Y105.60 low.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Recovery Stalls Below 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: Y133.06 Feb 21 high

*RES 3: Y132.30/47 1% vol band, Mar 13 high, 38.2% Fibo

*RES 2: Y131.73/77 Mar 20 high, 76.4% Fibo of Y132.44-Y129.61

*RES 1: Y131.20/40 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y130.59 @0845GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.35 Mar 20 low

*SUP 2: Y130.08 Hourly base Mar 16

*SUP 3: Y129.61 Mar 19 low

*SUP 4: Y129.35 Mar 5 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from Y129.61 has stalled just below the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at Y131.77. Some near term overbought conditions putting an end to

the rise at Y131.73. Attention now switches to Y130.42-Y130.35 support, loss

would concern but the Y130.08 level currently remains more pivotal to direction.

Below would swing bias back to the downside. Above Y131.77 and scope to increase

gains toward Y132.30-Y132.47, where equally important upside decisions are made.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8800-Stg0.8805 Bars Way To Recovery Hopes

*RES 4: Stg0.8886 Mar 13 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8850 Mar 12 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Stg0.8825 Mar 15 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Stg0.8800/05 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8752 @0852GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8745 Mar 19, Mar 20 lows

*SUP 2: Stg0.8732 Feb 8 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8717 Feb 1 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8687 Jan 25 low

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from the failure to deal with the top of the congested

trading area that has prevailed for the last 6 months, continued with a

vengeance Monday. The loss of Stg0.8815 was followed by a further move below

Stg0.8779-Stg0.8771. This now leaves the Feb 8 low at Stg0.8732 and the Feb 1

low at Stg0.8717 protecting the range base at Stg0.8687. In the meantime,

resistance from Stg0.8800-Stg0.8805 keeps a lid on near term recovery potential.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Decline Still Heads For Decent Support From $0.7652-$0.7647 

*RES 4: $0.7833 Hourly recovery high Mar 15

*RES 3: $0.7804 Mar 16 high

*RES 2: $0.7771 Initial base Mar 16, now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7723/35 Mar 19 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7689 @0901GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7679 Mar 20 low

*SUP 2: $0.7647/52 6 week bear channel, 76.4% $0.7502-$0.8136 

*SUP 3: $0.7628/30 Dec 14 low, 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $0.7612 Equality fall from $0.7989 to $0.8136-$0.7759

*COMMENTARY* Continued to lose ground rapidly early on Monday, exacerbated by

the loss of $0.7772-$0.7760 support and the lower 1% volatility band, at $0.7710

by time today. A low of $0.7679 so far, this protecting what currently looks a

decent area of support from between the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $0.7652 and

the 6 week bear channel base at $0.7647. Resistance from $0.7723-$0.7735, above

needed for near term respite.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Pivotal $1.3001 Support Survives Initial Test

*RES 4: $1.3165/77 Jun 14 low, 2 year falling res line

*RES 3: $1.3132 61.8% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061

*RES 2: $1.3125 1.618 swing of $1.3002-$1.2803, Mar 19 high

*RES 1: $1.3080/90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3051 @0915GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3001/10 Mar 7, Mar 5 highs, intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.2965 Congestion area Mar 14-Mar 15

*SUP 3: $1.2921 Mar 14 low

*SUP 4: $1.2877 Initial recovery high Mar 13, now support

*COMMENTARY* The rally through $1.3000 continued Monday, reaching $1.3125, the

swing target of the recent $1.3002-$1.2803 fall. This left us just shy of the

61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.3132 and the 2 year falling resistance line at

$1.3177. Became overbought in the near term, loss of $1.3048 has seen a dip

towards key $1.3001 support, The reaction here will be pivotal to direction.

Meanwhile, back above $1.3080-$1.3090 needed to regenerate upside interest.

GOLD TECHS: $1307.1 Protects Against $1302.8-$1301.4 Fall

*RES 4: $1341.1 Feb 26 high

*RES 3: $1334.1 Hourly high Mar 7

*RES 2: $1330.1 Mar 14 high

*RES 1: $1321.9 Mar 16 high

*PRICE: $1316.9 @0918GMT

*SUP 1: $1307.1 Feb 8 low

*SUP 2: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*SUP 3: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Unable to find a way above $1334.1 resistance over the course of

the month and is paying the price as a result. The loss of $1311.2 support now

sees the Feb 8 low at $1307.1 as the remaining protection against a return to

the $1302.8-$1301.4 support area. The latter a 50% Fibo retrace level and guard

against a deeper $1286.1 decline. Meanwhile, $1321.9-$1330.1 provides resistance

against another attempt to reach that elusive $1334.1.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]