MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: 5 Week Falling Resistance Line Casts A Shadow

*RES 4: $1.2413 Mar 14 high

*RES 3: $1.2375/85 5 week falling res line, Mar 15 high

*RES 2: $1.2332/59 Initial base Mar 19, Mar 19 high

*RES 1: $1.2300/10 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2281 @1500GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2240 Mar 20 low

*SUP 2: $1.2224 76.4% Fibo of $1.2155-$1.2446

*SUP 3: $1.2186/94 1.618 swing $1.2273-$1.2413, 1% vol band

*SUP 4: $1.2155 Mar 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to give up ground following last Wednesday's test to

the falling resistance line, $1.2413 at the time. This is at $1.2375 today and

is currently considered the main barrier to an upside revival and a fresh

$1.2413-$1.2446 challenge. In the meantime, there is earlier resistance from

between $1.2300-$1.2359. Tuesday's $1.2240 low protects against a deeper

$1.2224-$1.2186 fall, ahead of the month's previous $1.2155 low.

CABLE TECHS: Pullback Holds Into Top Of $1.3980-$1.3950 Support

*RES 4: $1.4196 76.4% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3712

*RES 3: $1.4145/55 Feb 16 high, 1.618 swing $1.4089-$1.3983 

*RES 2: $1.4104 61.8% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3712

*RES 1: $1.4088/89 1% volatility band, Mar 19 high

*PRICE: $1.4065 @1510GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4005/15 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3983 Mar 20 low

*SUP 3: $1.3950/51 Initial high Mar 16, 2 week support line

*SUP 4: $1.3913 Mar 19 low

*COMMENTARY* The break above $1.3997-$1.4000 on Monday was followed by a further

move through the next bands of resistance from between $1.4029-$1.4070. A high

of $1.4089 seen, just shy of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.4104 and perhaps

the stronger $1.4145-$1.4155 region . Monday's rise created some near term

overbought levels, so with the loss of $1.4015-$1.3996, support has been found

from $1.3983 ahead of$1.3950. Ideally pullbacks are now held above the latter.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y106.65-Y106.90 Still Provides Near Term Resistance

*RES 4: Y107.40 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Y107.28/30 76.4% of Y107.91-Y105.25, Mar 13 high

*RES 2: Y106.90 76.4% Fibo of Y107.30-Y105.60

*RES 1: Y106.65 61.8% Fibo of Y107.30-Y105.60

*PRICE: Y106.28 @1513GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.05/10 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y105.79 Mar 15, Mar 19 lows

*SUP 3: Y105.60 Mar 16 low

*SUP 4: Y105.25/28 Mar 2 low, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Y105.70 support was considered pivotal near term and was pressured

by last Friday's dip to Y105.60 before seeing a recovery. So far, this has

reached towards the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Y106.65, as we recoup some of

the losses seen from the month's Y107.30 high. Will likely need to see a move

above the upper 1% volatility band, at Y107.40  however, before any real upside

interest will develop. Support Y106.10-Y105.79 now protects that Y105.60 low.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Recovery Stalls Below 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: Y133.06 Feb 21 high

*RES 3: Y132.30/47 1% vol band, Mar 13 high, 38.2% Fibo

*RES 2: Y131.73/77 Mar 20 high, 76.4% Fibo of Y132.44-Y129.61

*RES 1: Y131.15/35 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y130.55 @1518GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.20/30 Intraday low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y130.08 Hourly base Mar 16

*SUP 3: Y129.61 Mar 19 low

*SUP 4: Y129.35 Mar 5 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from Y129.61 has stalled just below the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at Y131.77. Some near term overbought conditions putting an end to

the rise at Y131.73. Subsequent pullback has broken below Y130.35 support, loss

concerns but the Y130.08 level currently remains more pivotal to direction.

Below would swing bias back to the downside. Above Y131.77 and scope to increase

gains toward Y132.30-Y132.47, where equally important upside decisions are made.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Further Fall Now Has Stg0.8775-85 Barring Way To Recovery 

*RES 4: Stg0.8874 Mar 15 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8850 Mar 12 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Stg0.8817/25 Mar 19 high, Mar 15 low

*RES 1: Stg0.8775/85 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8736 @1524GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8723 Intraday low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8717 Feb 1 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8687 Jan 25 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8653 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from the failure to deal with the top of the congested

trading area that has prevailed for the last 6 months, has continued with a

vengeance this week. The loss of Stg0.8815 was followed by a further move below

Stg0.8779-Stg0.8771. With today's loss of Stg0.8732 this leaves the Feb 1 low at

Stg0.8717 protecting the range base at Stg0.8687. In the meantime, resistance

from Stg0.8775-Stg0.87855 keeps a lid on near term recovery potential.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Decline Still Heads For Decent Support From $0.7652-$0.7647 

*RES 4: $0.7833 Hourly recovery high Mar 15

*RES 3: $0.7804 Mar 16 high

*RES 2: $0.7771 Initial base Mar 16, now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7723/35 Mar 19 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7709 @1528GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7672 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $0.7647/52 6 week bear channel, 76.4% $0.7502-$0.8136 

*SUP 3: $0.7628/30 Dec 14 low, 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $0.7612 Equality fall from $0.7989 to $0.8136-$0.7759

*COMMENTARY* Continued to lose ground rapidly early on Monday, exacerbated by

the loss of $0.7772-$0.7760 support and the lower 1% volatility band, at $0.7710

by time today. A low of $0.7672 so far, this protecting what currently looks a

decent area of support from between the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $0.7652 and

the 6 week bear channel base at $0.7647. Resistance from $0.7723-$0.7735, above

needed for near term respite.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2921-$1.2877 Next Supports After $1.3000 Gives Way

*RES 4: $1.3087 Selection of hourly highs Mar 20

*RES 3: $1.3047/59 Mar 19, Mar 20 lows, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.3010/30 Intraday hourly congestion area 

*RES 1: $1.2990/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2953 @1541GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2921 Mar 14 low

*SUP 2: $1.2877 Initial recovery high Mar 13, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2843 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.2803 Mar 12 low

*COMMENTARY* The rally through $1.3000 continued Monday, reaching $1.3125, the

swing target of the recent $1.3002-$1.2803 fall. This left us just shy of the

61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.3132 and the 2 year falling resistance line at

$1.3177. Became overbought in the near term, resulting in a loss of key $1.3001

support today. This now sees the Mar 14 low at $1.2921 and particularly $1.2877

as next important supports. Meanwhile, $1.2990-$1.3033 becomes resistance.

GOLD TECHS: $1307.1 Support Holds And Produces A Bounce

*RES 4: $1351.1 Feb 1 high

*RES 3: $1341.1 Feb 26 high

*RES 2: $1334.1 Hourly high Mar 7

*RES 1: $1330.1 Mar 14 high

*PRICE: $1326.2 @1546GMT

*SUP 1: $1311.9 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1307.1 Feb 8 low

*SUP 3: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*SUP 4: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Unable to find a way above $1334.1 resistance over the course of

the month and has paid the price as a result. The loss of $1311.2 now has the

Feb 8 low at $1307.1 as the remaining protection against a return to the

$1302.8-$1301.4 support area. The latter a 50% Fibo retrace level and guard

against a deeper $1286.1 decline. Meanwhile, $1330.1 provides resistance against

another attempt to reach that elusive $1334.1 and perhaps $1341.1-$1351.1.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]