MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Falters Below $1.2397-$1.2413 Barrier

*RES 4: $1.2446 Mar 7 high

*RES 3: $1.2413 Mar 14 high

*RES 2: $1.2397 76.4% Fibo of $1.2446-$1.2240

*RES 1: $1.2355/65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2306 @1525GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2296 Initial recovery high Mar 21, now support

*SUP 2: $1.2260/65 Hourly basing area Mar 16-Mar 21

*SUP 3: $1.2224/40 76.4% of $1.2155-$1.2446, Mar 21 low

*SUP 4: $1.2200 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Attempting a clear break above the 5 week falling resistance line,

at $1.2367 today. A sustained move through here will find next resistance from

the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2397 and the Mar 14 high at $1.2413. While

capped below here there is scope for a pullback, $1.2296 now of more consequence

and protection against a $1.2265-$1.2240 return. Directly above $1.2413 and the

old adversaries between $1.2446-$1.2461 remain higher.

CABLE TECHS: Sharp Pullback After Brief Rally Through $1.4196 Fibo Level

*RES 4: $1.4272/79 2% volatility band, Feb 1, Feb 2 highs

*RES 3: $1.4220 Intraday high

*RES 2: $1.4180/90 Intraday hourly highs

*RES 1: $1.4135 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.4083 @1535GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4055/60 Hourly congestion area Mar 21

*SUP 2: $1.4018/20 Hourly base Mar 19, initial high Mar 20

*SUP 3: $1.3983 Mar 20 low

*SUP 4: $1.3960/65 Congestion area Mar 13-Mar 16

*COMMENTARY* Recovered well from Tuesday's drop to $1.3983. Today's rally

surpassed the 3 week bull channel top at $1.4175 and also the next level of

note, the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.4196. A high of $1.4220 before running

into some near term heavily overbought conditions. As a result of the subsequent

fall, now looking at $1.4060-$1.4018 corrective potential. Resistance meanwhile

comes from $1.4135 and then $1.4180-$1.4190.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Downside Pressure Resumes On Key Y105.25-Y105.13 Area

*RES 4: Y106.65 Mar 21 high

*RES 3: Y106.30/35 Hourly congestion Mar 21

*RES 2: Y105.97 Intraday high

*RES 1: Y105.70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y105.38 @1605GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.13/25 1% volatility band, Mar 2 low

*SUP 2: Y104.95 1.618 swing of Y105.60-Y106.65

*SUP 3: Y104.07/09 2% vol band, 1.618 swing Y105.55-Y107.91

*SUP 4: Y103.98 1.618 swing f Y105.25-Y107.30

*COMMENTARY* This week's recovery was stopped in its tracks by the 61.8% Fibo

retrace level at Y106.65 on Wednesday. The resulting fall has been swift,

exerting pressure initially on the Y105.60 area again. The subsequent break now

targets the key area between Y105.25 and the lower 1% volatility band at

Y105.07. Any lower and 3 swing targets between Y104.95 and Y103.98 then ahead of

the 16 month bear channel base at Y103.91. Resistance Y105.70-Y106.35.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Fresh Fall Piles Pressure Back On Y129.60-Y129.35 Area

*RES 4: Y131.30 Hourly highs Mar 15, Mar 20

*RES 3: Y131.07 Mar 21 high

*RES 2: Y130.65/70 Hourly congestion Mar 21-22

*RES 1: Y130.20/30 Mar 21 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y129.89 @1620GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.50/60 Intraday low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: Y129.35 Mar 5 low

*SUP 3: Y128.90 Equality fall from Y131.73 to Y132.44-Y129.61

*SUP 4: Y128.25/30 2% vol band, 1.618 swing Y129.61-Y131.73

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from Y129.61 stalled just below the 76.4% Fibo retrace

level at Y131.77 on Tuesday. Some near term overbought conditions putting an end

to the rise at Y131.73. Subsequent pullback has broken below Y130.35 support,

loss concerns, especially given the further break below Y130.08. This swings

bias back to the downside and pressure on Y129.60-Y129.35. Resistance from

Y130.20-Y130.70.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Recovers After Brief Break Below 6 Month Trading Range

*RES 4: Stg0.8850 Mar 12 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Stg0.8817 Mar 19 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8782 Hourly high Mar 20

*RES 1: Stg0.8750/60 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8730 @1628GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8685/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8668 Intraday low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8633 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from the failure to deal with the top of the congested

6 month trading area early in the month, has continued apace this week. Today's

sharp dip to Stg0.8668 briefly breaking the base of the range at Stg0.8687,

before finding some respite on the back of oversold hourly conditions. In this

respect, nearest resistance comes from between Stg0.8750-Stg0.8760 but likely

requires a further move above Stg0.8782 to gain any real relief.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Rally Keeps Pressure Off Key Support Area

*RES 4: $0.7859 76.4% Fibo of $0.7917-$0.7672

*RES 3: $0.7823 61.8% Fibo of $0.7917-$0.7672

*RES 2: $0.7786/94 Intraday high, 50% of $0.7917-$0.7672

*RES 1: $0.7755/65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7715 @1633GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7687 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $0.7672 Mar 21 low

*SUP 3: $0.7643/52 6 week bear channel, 76.4% $0.7502-$0.8136 

*SUP 4: $0.7628/34 Dec 14 low, 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The fall reached $0.7672 on Wednesday before finding some support

and the strength to rally. This prevented a test into the key support from

around $0.7650. The subsequent rise to a high of $0.7786 so far today, currently

looks 5 wave impulsive, so although the setback has fallen below the ideal

support at $0.7700, there may still be scope for increased gains to follow while

above $0.7672. Resistance $0.7755-$0.7765.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Decline Reaches Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.3055 Highs/lows Mar 19-21, 76.4% Fibo retrace

*RES 3: $1.3010/12 Initial low Mar 21, 61.8% Fibo retrace

*RES 2: $1.2976/77 Hourly recovery high Mar 21, 50% Fibo

*RES 1: $1.2943 38.2% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2830 

*PRICE: $1.2902 @1638GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2855/70 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2830 Intraday low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.2803 Mar 12 low

*SUP 4: $1.2790 38.2% Fibo of $1.2249-$1.3125

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from Monday's test to the swing target at $1.3125 has

been rapid. Today's extended fall below $1.2877 support finding some respite

from the lower 1% volatility band, at $1.2830 by time today. Has become oversold

in the near term and the break back above $1.2900-$1.2905 allows the chance of a

greater correction of those losses from $1.3125. Support now $1.2870-$1.2855 but

below $1.2830 and $1.2803-$1.2790 next supports.

GOLD TECHS: $1307.1 Support Holds And Produces A Bounce

*RES 4: $1361.8 Feb 16 high

*RES 3: $1351.1 Feb 1 high, 76.4% of $1366.2-$1302.8

*RES 2: $1341.1/42.0 Feb 26 high, 61.8% of $1366.2-$1302.8

*RES 1: $1336.7 Mar 21 high

*PRICE: $1326.9 @1640GMT

*SUP 1: $1314.0 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1307.3 Mar 20 low

*SUP 3: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*SUP 4: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Found support from just above the Feb 7 low at $1307.1 on Tuesday

and the subsequent recovery through $1334.1, although embryonic, is near term

encouraging. Provided any dips are able to stay above $1314.0, then the next

resistance of note comes from $1341.1-$1342.0. This the Feb 26 high and 61.8%

Fibo retrace of the losses sustained since the year's $1366.2 high on Jan 25.

Below $1314.0 will disappoint and put $1307.3 back under pressure.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]