Free Trial

Gold Conditions Remain Bullish Despite Monday Dip


Equity Futures Pullback Still Seems Corrective


Mostly spreads are going through


Zloty Weakens Ahead Of NBP Press Conference



Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Next Band Of Support Seen Between $1.1894-$1.1868
*RES 4: $1.2106 Hourly recovery high Apr 30 
*RES 3: $1.2032 May 2 high
*RES 2: $1.2009 May 3 high
*RES 1: $1.1978/85 Intraday high, hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1908 @1617GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1894/98 1.618 swing $1.1938-$1.2009, intraday low
*SUP 2: $1.1868 Hourly support
*SUP 3: $1.1828 1.618x $1.2556-$1.2155 from $1.2477
*SUP 4: $1.1812 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Downside extended on Friday and has seen a break below Wednesday's
low and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.1937. A low of $1.1898 now posted,
just above the next support from the swing target at $1.1894. Recently corrected
some oversold hourly conditions but $1.1975-$1.1985 has capped so far. Above and
then $1.2009 and $1.2032 of more importance higher. Below $1.1894 and $1.1868
becomes the brake to $1.1828 and the 2% volatility band at $1.1812.
CABLE TECHS: Held By 2% Volatility Band As Pace Of Decline Slows 
*RES 4: $1.3713 Apr 30 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $1.3667 May 2 high
*RES 2: $1.3630 May 3 high
*RES 1: $1.3587 May 4 high
*PRICE: $1.3568 @1605GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3510/15 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3487 May 4 low
*SUP 3: $1.3439/58 2% volatility band, Jan 11 low
*SUP 4: $1.3386 76.4% Fibo of $1.3027-$1.4377
*COMMENTARY* Lost further ground on Friday, dipping below dual support from the
$1.3541 area. The recently slowed pace of the decline has however allowed a move
back within the lower 2% volatility band and this held the fall on Friday at
$1.3487. This has moved lower by time today and becomes part of the next band of
support between $1.3458-$1.3439. Resistance between $1.3565-$1.3587 but any
recovery hopes will only benefit by a move back above Thursday's $1.3630 high.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  The Y108.75-Y108.54 Area Is Key To Retaining Upside Momentum
*RES 4: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63
*RES 3: Y110.04 May 2 high
*RES 2: Y109.75/80 Initial basing area May 2, now resistance
*RES 1: Y109.40/45 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y109.13 @1610GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.65/75 May 4 low, 7 week rising support line
*SUP 2: Y108.54 Apr 24 low 
*SUP 3: Y108.21 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: Y107.97 38.2% Fibo of Y104.63-Y110.04
*COMMENTARY* Finally cleared troublesome Y109.51-Y109.61 resistance last
Tuesday, but the rise has subsequently been contained by the upper 1% volatility
band. This has allowed some correction of recent gains and am aware that the
rally from the Mar 23 low at Y104.63 is beginning to look mature and a cap below
the Nov 27 low at Y110.84 is possible. Meanwhile, support from Y109.50-Y109.18
has been lost leaving the Y108.75-Y108.54 area as now key.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Decline Challenges Now Key Y129.90-Y129.85 Support Area
*RES 4: Y132.12 May 2high
*RES 3: Y131.67 May 3 high
*RES 2: Y131.14/24 Hourly recovery high May 3, May 2 low
*RES 1: Y130.64/75 Recovery high May 4, hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y130.18 @1612GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.85/90 Hourly support, May 4 low
*SUP 2: Y129.44 1.618 swing of Y129.90-Y130.64
*SUP 3: Y129.12 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: Y128.95 Mar 22 low
*COMMENTARY* Key support from Y129.99 came under assault on Friday but has so
far been unable to sustain a clear break lower. A low of Y129.90 before
recovering some ground, aided by some near term oversold conditions. Nearest
resistance comes from between Y130.64-Y130.75, above will help but no real
momentum will be generated while below the May 2 low at Y131.24. Below
Y129.90-Y129.85 has Y129.44 protecting Y129.12-Y128.95.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Likely To Encounter Stg0.8835-Stg0.8857 Resistance
*RES 4: Stg0.8886 Mar 13 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620
*RES 3: Stg0.8857/70 1.618 swing Stg0.8790-Stg0.8681, 1% vol
*RES 2: Stg0.8851 Equality rise from 0.8681 to 0.8620-0.8790
*RES 1: Stg0.8835/42 61.8% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, May 4 high
*PRICE: Stg0.8792 @1614GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8775 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8761 May 1 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8714 Initial rally high Apr 27, now support
*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low
*COMMENTARY* Last Monday's move back above Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798 resistance took
us back into the upper half of the 6 month bear channel, with the
Stg0.8835-Stg0.8857 area likely to provide the next test to this rally. As a
result, nearest support moves up to Stg0.8775-Stg0.8761, back below the latter
would caution near term. Directly through Stg0.8857 and the upper 1% volatility
band at Stg0.8870 can be the next bar to a higher Stg0.8886 rise.
AUSSIE TECHS: Back Above $0.7585 Required Before Any Correction Likely
*RES 4: $0.7643 Mar 29 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7621 Apr 24 high
*RES 2: $0.7585 Apr 27 high
*RES 1: $0.7561 May 4 high
*PRICE: $0.7527 @1615GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.7492/93 May 4, intraday lows
*SUP 2: $0.7462/73 1% volatility band, May 1 low
*SUP 3: $0.7419 1.618 swing target of $0.7473-$0.7561
*SUP 4: $0.7386/97 2% vol band, 2018 weekly bear channel 
*COMMENTARY* Downside interest continued last week, breaking beneath the
$0.7510-$0.7502 support area. The longer term 50% Fibo retrace level at $0.7481
is the latest to come under pressure. In the meantime, have seen a recovery to
$0.7561 but currently requires a move back above last Friday's $0.7585 high,
before any correction of losses from the Apr 19 high at $0.7813 is likely. Lose
$0.7473-$0.7462 and $0.7419 then protects against a $0.7397-$0.7386 fall.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2914-$1.2918 Now The Bar To $1.2944-$1.2984 Gains
*RES 4: $1.3002 Mar 5 high
*RES 3: $1.2980/84 1% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2528
*RES 2: $1.2941/44 Mar 29, Apr 2 highs
*RES 1: $1.2918 May 4 high
*PRICE: $1.2848 @1616GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2830/35 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2803/06 May 2, Apr 30 lows 
*SUP 3: $1.2750 Apr 23 low
*SUP 4: $1.2718 Hourly base Apr 20
*COMMENTARY* Key near term support from 1.2806 came under attack again last
Wednesday, this after seeing a break above the recent range highs from
$1.2897-$1.2901 on Tuesday. A peak of $1.2918 seen so far, before yielding
ground again. Initial support now $1.2835-$1.2830 but a sustained break below
$1.2806-$1.2803 will open up a correction of the gains seen from the Apr 17 base
at $1.2528. Meanwhile, $1.2944-$1.2984 the reward of any $1.2918 break.
GOLD TECHS: Fall Pauses Ahead Of The 50% Fibo Level At $1301.4
*RES 4: $1339.6 Base of broken 10 week bull channel
*RES 3: $1332.8 Apr 24 high
*RES 2: $1327.2 Apr 27 high
*RES 1: $1321.2 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1313.5 @1617GMT
*SUP 1: $1301.4/2.2 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2, Jan 1 low
*SUP 2: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2
*SUP 4: $1282.2 Rising Weekly support line from Dec 2016
*COMMENTARY* Last month saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1339.6
today, following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2
high earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at
$1326.7, opens the way for a continued fall and with $1307.3 also going,
suggests a test of the year's $1302.2 low and 50% Fibo level at $1301.4. In the
meantime, $1321.2-$1327.2 now presents initial resistance.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email:

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.