MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Projection Target Under Attack, Ahead Of $1.1790 Fibo Support

*RES 4: $1.1977 May 7 high

*RES 3: $1.1939 May 8 high

*RES 2: $1.1898 May 7 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1870 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.1839 @0845GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1828 1.618x $1.2556-$1.2155 from $1.2477

*SUP 2: $1.1790 76.4% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.2556

*SUP 3: $1.1738/45 Dec 15 low, 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.1709/17 38.2% of $1.0340-$1.2556, Dec 12 low

*COMMENTARY* The 1.618 projection target at $1.1828 has come under challenge

today, a low of $1.1823 before encountering some oversold hourly conditions. In

this respect look to the day's $1.1870 high for initial resistance, the May 7

low at $1.1898 of more importance above. Will need to climb back above here

before any rally will carry the threat of a decent sized correction. Below

$1.1823 and the 76.4% Fibo level at $1.1790 protects against a deeper fall.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3630 Resistance Currently Keeps The Downside Bias Intact

*RES 4: $1.3667 May 2 high

*RES 3: $1.3630 May 3 high

*RES 2: $1.3587/93 May 4, May 8 highs

*RES 1: $1.3565/70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3530 @0855GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3484/87 May 8, May 4 lows

*SUP 2: $1.3458 Jan 11 low

*SUP 3: $1.3421 1.618 swing of $1.3487-$1.3593

*SUP 4: $1.3386 61.8% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.4377

*COMMENTARY* The recently slowed pace of the decline has allowed a move back

within the lower 2% volatility band and this held the fall on Friday at $1.3487.

This level was challenged again yesterday, a brief and slight break lower to

$1.3484, before finding support again. Meanwhile, resistance comes from between

$1.3565-$1.3593 but any recovery will only feel the benefit, if a break of

$1.3630 can be staged. Below $1.3484 has $1.3458-$1.3421 support next.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  7 Week Support Line Survives A Test On Tuesday

*RES 4: Y110.84 Nov 27 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y110.40 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*RES 1: Y110.04 May 2 high

*PRICE: Y109.76 @0908GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y109.02 7 week rising support line

*SUP 3: Y108.83 May 8 low

*SUP 4: Y108.54/65 Apr 24, May 4 lows

*COMMENTARY* The 7 week rising support line survived a test on Tuesday, keeping

recent upside momentum intact for the time being. Furthermore, the Y109.80

resistance level is under attack at the time of writing, the bar to a Y110.04

return. As a result, support rises accordingly, Y109.35 initially, ahead of that

support line at Y109.02 by time today. Directly above Y110.04 and the Y110.24

Fibo retrace comes back into the picture ahead of the pivotal Y110.84 level.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Finds Support From Above The Key Y128.95-Y128.85 Area

*RES 4: Y131.36 50% Fibo of Y133.49-Y129.23

*RES 3: Y130.86/88 38.2% of Y133.49-Y129.23, May 4 high

*RES 2: Y130.64 Hourly recovery high May 4

*RES 1: Y130.31 Hourly high May 7, 76.4% of Y130.64-Y129.23

*PRICE: Y130.15 @0917GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.50/60 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y129.23 May 8 low

*SUP 3: Y128.95 Mar 22 low

*SUP 4: Y128.85 2 year bull channel base 

*COMMENTARY* A low of Y129.23 on Tuesday, just below the swing target at Y129.44

and protecting against a return to the Mar 22 base at Y128.95 and the 2 year

bull channel base projection at Y128.85. Oversold in the near term as a

consequence, the subsequent rally now nearing Y130.31 resistance. Above would

encourage although most will be looking to the higher Y130.64-Y130.88 area for

the key to any lasting recovery. Support now Y129.60-Y129.50.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Pullback Testing Resolve Of 61.8% Fibo Level

*RES 4: Stg0.8851 Equality rise from 0.8681 to 0.8620-0.8790

*RES 3: Stg0.8835/42 61.8% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, May 4 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8810/15 May 8 high, May 4 low

*RES 1: Stg0.8780/85 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8756 @0927GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8742 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8681-Stg0.8842

*SUP 2: Stg0.8714/19 Initial rally high Apr 27, 76.4% Fibo

*SUP 3: Stg0.8696 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low

*COMMENTARY* Has been unable to sustain the move back into the top half of the 6

month bear channel. A high of Stg0.8842 last week, before succumbing to some

corrective pressure. The loss of Stg0.8761 support now leaves the 61.8% Fibo

retrace level at Stg0.8742 as the protection against a further

Stg0.8719-Stg0.8714 fall. Meanwhile, Stg0.8780-Stg0.8785 provides resistance,

Stg0.8810-Stg0.8815 higher.

AUSSIE TECHS: Early Fall Spikes Swing Target At $0.7419

*RES 4: $0.7561 May 4 high

*RES 3: $0.7531 Hourly recovery high May 7

*RES 2: $0.7492/93 May 4, May 7 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7465/73 Hourly resistance, May 1 low

*PRICE: $0.7445 @0939GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7412/19 Intraday low,1.618 swing of $0.7473-$0.7561 

*SUP 2: $0.7397 2018 weekly bear channel base

*SUP 3: $0.7359 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $0.7333 May 9 2017 low

*COMMENTARY* A low of $0.7412 so far today, just beneath the swing target at

$0.7419. This the remaining protection to the 2018 weekly bear channel base at

$0.7397. In the meantime, nearest resistance now comes from $0.7465-$0.7473 and

then the previous basing area at $0.7492-$0.7493. It is however, the higher

$0.7531 level that is currently the key to any better recovery prospects. Below

$0.7397 and last May's $0.7333 low becomes the next focus.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Rally Spikes Key Resistance At $1.2984 Into 1% Vol Band

*RES 4: $1.3125/33 Mar 19 high, 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3045 Max 5th wave target in rise from $1.2528

*RES 2: $1.2998/04 May 8 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.2975/85 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2936 @0943GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2914/18 May 1, May 4 highs, now support

*SUP 2: $1.2876 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $1.2840/41 May 4, May 7 lows

*SUP 4: $1.2803/06 May 2, Apr 30 lows 

*COMMENTARY* A brief spike through key resistance at $1.2984 was abruptly halted

by the upper 1% volatility band at $1.2998 on Tuesday. The subsequent pullback

now allows some earlier resistance to appear again between $1.2975-$1.2985.

Nearest support now from the former highs of $1.2918-$1.2914 but it will take a

loss Tuesday's $1.2876 low to upset recent upside momentum, then putting $1.2840

back under pressure. Directly through $1.2998-$1.3004 and $1.3045 next.

GOLD TECHS: Fall Pauses Ahead Of The 50% Fibo Level At $1301.4

*RES 4: $1341.5 Base of broken 10 week bull channel

*RES 3: $1332.8 Apr 24 high

*RES 2: $1327.2 Apr 27 high

*RES 1: $1321.2 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1307.3 @0945GMT

*SUP 1: $1301.4/2.2 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2, Jan 1 low

*SUP 2: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1282.2 Rising Weekly support line from Dec 2016

*COMMENTARY* Last month saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1341.5

today, following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2

high earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at

$1326.7, opens the way for a continued fall and with $1307.3 also going,

suggests a test of the year's $1302.2 low and 50% Fibo level at $1301.4. In the

meantime, $1321.2-$1327.2 now presents initial resistance.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]