MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Decline Continues After Rally Stifled Around 76.4% Level

*RES 4: $1.1751/58 May 24 high, 7 week falling resistance line

*RES 3: $1.1726/29 76.4% of $1.1751-$1.1646, intraday high

*RES 2: $1.1700 Initial intraday pullback low, now res'tce

*RES 1: $1.1655/65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1614 @1334GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1608 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1592 Max 5th wave target in fall from $1.2477

*SUP 3: $1.1554 Nov 7 low

*SUP 4: $1.1516 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* After attempting to break lower, found some support on Friday from

the swing target at $1.1647. Became oversold near term but the subsequent rally

has been stifled around the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.1726. Will need to

sustain a move back through here at a minimum, before the chance of a challenge

to the higher $1.1751-$1.1790 region. Support from $1.1665-$1.1634 has since

been lost, $1.1595-$1.1592 next below.

CABLE TECHS: Rallies Benign While Capped Below $1.3380-$1.3390

*RES 4: $1.3451/60 May 15, May 16, May 10 lows, now res'tce

*RES 3: $1.3422 May 24 high 

*RES 2: $1.3380/90 Hourly resistance

*RES 1: $1.3342 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.3308 @1335GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3294/95 May 25 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $1.3264/69 1.618 swing $1.3294-$1.3342, Aug 3 high

*SUP 3: $1.3233 1.618 swing $1.3305-$1.3422

*SUP 4: $1.3221 Nov 28 low

*COMMENTARY* The mid December $1.3305-$1.3302 lows came under increasing

pressure as last week wore on. One final push on Friday saw a move down to

$1.3294, equating to the lower 1% volatility band, before finding some respite.

This will only be temporary while resistance from $1.3380-$1.3390 caps. Will

need the boost of a rally through here, before the chance of a $1.3422-$1.3460

rise. Below $1.3294 and $1.3264-$1.3233 the next calculated targets.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y109.83-Y109.90 Provides Resistance To Rally Attempts

*RES 4: Y110.84 Initial pullback low May 22, now res'tce

*RES 3: Y110.45/46 Broken bull channel base, May 15 high 

*RES 2: Y110.20 Hourly congestion May 23

*RES 1: Y109.83/90 May 25 high, hourly resistance 

*PRICE: Y109.28 @1336GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.12/15 May 25 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: Y108.81/95 38.2% of Y104.63-Y111.40, May 24 low

*SUP 3: Y108.65 May 4 low

*SUP 4: Y108.41 1.618 swing of Y108.95-Y109.83

*COMMENTARY* The appearance of a 'shooting star' candle close on the daily chart

last Monday was the warning and precursor to the subsequent decline, which broke

beneath key Y109.15 support on Thursday. A low of Y108.95, before encountering

some near term oversold conditions. In this respect, Y109.83-Y109.90 provides

immediate resistance, Y110.20-Y110.46 thereafter. Support Y109.15-Y109.12, below

would caution, Y108.81-Y108.41 on loss of Y108.95.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Fall Continues, 2% Volatility Band Under Assault

*RES 4: Y128.88/06 May 24 high, recovery high May 23

*RES 3: Y128.53/54 May 25, intraday highs

*RES 2: Y128.16 Intraday hourly recovery high 

*RES 1: Y127.60/70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y127.06 @1343GMT

*SUP 1: Y126.95 2% volatility band

*SUP 2: Y126.29 1.618 swing of Y129.15-Y128.54

*SUP 3: Y126.18 50% Fibo of Y114.85-Y137.51

*SUP 4: Y125.81/82 May 2017 highs, now support

*COMMENTARY* Failed between Y131.36-Y131.38 resistance last week and

subsequently paid the price. The resultant fall has lost support from the 2 year

bull channel base and also the key Y129.23-Y128.85 area. Today Y127.15-Y127.12

support has also gone, the 2% volatility band at Y126.95 now providing the

protection against a deeper Y126.29-Y126.18 fall. Resistance Y127.60-Y127.70 and

then Y128.16 above.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Remains Marooned In Midst Of Six Month Channel

*RES 4: Stg0.8842/43 May 4 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.8835 May 10 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8814/18 76.4% of Stg0.8842-Stg0.8713, May 15 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8795/97 May 11 low, May 23, intraday highs

*PRICE: Stg0.8731 @1345GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8724 May 18 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8713 May 17 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8705 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8620-Stg0.8842

*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from Stg0.8713 earlier in the month. Once again

keeping us from a test to the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at the slightly lower

Stg0.8705 level. The subsequent recovery, now sees earlier support from

Stg0.8724 as protecting against a downside return. Meanwhile, having moved

through the May 16 high at Stg0.8783, the focus returns to the

Stg0.8795-Stg0.8797 area, where better questions are asked of this rise.

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7606-$0.7618 Now The Key To Direction Here

*RES 4: $0.7641/43 1.618 swing $0.7567-$0.7447, Mar 29 low

*RES 3: $0.7618 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $0.7606/12 May 22 high, 50% of $0.7813-$0.7412

*RES 1: $0.7590 May 25 high

*PRICE: $0.7554 @1345GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7540/42 Hourly support, May 24-25 lows

*SUP 2: $0.7515/23 Congestion area May 17-21, May 23 low

*SUP 3: $0.7503 May 21 low

*SUP 4: $0.7485/88 76.4% of $0.7447-$0.7606, May 18 low

*COMMENTARY* Tuesday's rally failed to deal with resistance from the upper 1%

volatility band, shy of the 50% Fibo retrace level at $0.7612. A small 'Doji'

candle close on Tuesday has seen a setback into $0.7525-$0.7515 support. This

now the protection against a further $0.7503-$0.7485 fall. Meanwhile resistance

comes from Friday's $0.7590 high the $0.7606-$0.7618 area then again the near

term barrier to gains.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Next Target Range Between $1.2998-$1.3038

*RES 4: $1.3164 1.618 swing of $1.2998-$1.2729

*RES 3: $1.3125 Mar 19 high, 2% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.3038 1.618 swing of $1.2925-$1.2743

*RES 1: $1.2990/98 1% volatility band, May 8 high

*PRICE: $1.2985 @1346GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2935/45 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2921/25 May 24, May 15 highs, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2889 Hourly base May 25

*SUP 4: $1.2860 Congestion lows since Mid May

*COMMENTARY* The break back through $1.2925-$1.2935 resistance has given the

upside renewed impetus. Today approaching a challenge to the upper 1% volatility

band and the May 8 high at $1.2998. Above here and the swing target at $1.3038

can be the brake to a $1.3125 return, where the Mar 19 high is joined by the

upper 2% volatility band. Support from between $1.2945-$1.2921, will need to

lose the latter before the recent upward momentum loses it's shine.

GOLD TECHS: Recovery Falters Beneath $1308.9-$1309.3 Resistance

*RES 4: $1332.8 Apr 13 low, Apr 24 high

*RES 3: $1326.0 May 11 high

*RES 2: $1314.9 May 15 high

*RES 1: $1308.9/9.3 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1298.7 @1347GMT

*SUP 1: $1292.0 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1287.8 May 23 low

*SUP 3: $1282.2 May 21 low

*SUP 4: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last Monday which

raised some concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the

December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's

$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. If this can be sustained, then there is not much to stop

an eventual $1267.2 fall. In the meantime, the move back through $1298.9-$1301.7

allows some respite, $1308.9-$1314.9 next resistance higher.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]