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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Bloomberg consensus sees nonfarm payrolls rising 185k in January, primary dealers see a median 205k.
- All change from revisions: The establishment survey will be affected by annual benchmark revisions, new seasonal factors and updated estimates for the net birth/death model, whilst the household survey (e.g. unemployment rate) will be adjusted for new population controls.
- The unemployment rate is seen increasing a tenth to 3.8%, flattered by rounding, whilst average hourly earnings are seen moderating with some looking for a larger slowing in what would be increasingly dovish after latest data reveal continued strong productivity growth.
- Fed Chair Powell has raised the bar to a first cut in March, but with traders also weighing NYCB’s troubles are wider ranging, this report carries large two-sided risk (although we’d fade an AHE hawkish surprise).
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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