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MNI US Payrolls Preview - Eyes On Wages, Slack

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • March nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 490k according to the Bloomberg median. There are a few much softer forecasts although the majority of views are relatively tightly packed between 450-550k and the primary dealer median sits at 520k.
  • Watch average hourly earnings to see how much of a bounce there is after the surprising pause in February, in conjunction with other measures of slack.
  • We see two-sided risks to May pricing for Fed hikes and somewhat asymmetric risk to the downside for the broader rate path, but acknowledge that there's a long way to go between this report and the next FOMC decision on May 4, especially in the current geopolitical climate.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT AT THE BELOW LINK, INCLUDING PREVIEWS FROM EIGHT SELL SIDE ANALYSTS PLUS THE ST LOUIS FED'S MODEL:

USNFPMar2022Preview.pdf

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