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MNI US Payrolls Preview: Significant Two-Sided Risk

  • Consensus sees NFP growth moderating to 260k in Sept after the 315k from August’s ‘goldilocks’ report.
  • Indications of tightness from AHE and the u/e rate combined with recovery in participation will help shape the market reaction after the u/e rate ticked up two tenths and wage growth cooled moderately in Aug.
  • Analyst expectations imply a reasonable chance of small beats for the u/e rate and wage growth, at least at a first glance on rounding, potentially paving way for an initial overreaction to small surprises.
  • That said, recent market moves open significant two-sided risk to larger surprises in the report, even with CPI and other important data releases still to come before the Nov 2 FOMC decision.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL PREVIEW HERE:

USNFPOct2022Preview.pdf

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