MNI US Payrolls Preview: Strikes To Potentially Muddy Underlying Trend

Executive Summary

• Bloomberg consensus sees payrolls growth of 170k in August with perhaps a little under 20k as a temporary drag from the actors’ strike June, along with a potential seasonal bias lower.
• The strike is seen unlikely to have a material impact on AHE, forecast at 0.3% M/M after July’s surprise strength, or average hours worked, seen holding at pre-pandemic lows.
• It could help push the u/e rate higher though, with analysts skewed higher than consensus for no change.
• Near-term Fed pricing shows minimal chance of a September hike before around 50/50 chance of a final hike in November, having taken a step back from recent increases after softer JOLTS data.
• A few releases still to come ahead of the Sept 20 decision with US CPI Sep 13, although at this stage it would likely require a very large beat to seriously consider a September hike.

USNFPSep2023Preview.pdf