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Modest EURHUF Downtick Erases This Week’s Gains

HUF
EURHUF has continued to trade on the back foot through the NY crossover, with today’s losses amounting to as much as 0.91%. The cross sits slightly in the red on the week overall following today’s move, with the local currency outperforming its CE3 peers (PLNHUF: -0.58%; CZKHUF: -0.75%). Yesterday, the cross failed to break key resistance at 394.67, the Aug 3 high.
  • The technical outlook in EURHUF remains bullish with support at 384.44, the 50-day EMA, still intact. Attention is on the aforementioned resistance level at 394.67, a clear break of which would open $402.45, the Mar 20 high, further out. On the downside, a move through the 50-day EMA would instead be a bearish development and expose 378.24, the Aug 30 low.
  • While sell-side all point to the importance of the HUF moving forward, there is no consensus among the views that we have seen regarding the path of the base rate through to the end of the year. Estimates range from a pause in October to continued 100bp cuts (https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/55954/MNINBH...).

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