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Modest Position Squaring Ahead Wed's CPI

US TSYS

Rates holding narrow range near midday session highs after the close (30YY taps 2.985% low vs. early overnight high of 3.0836%), light volumes (TYU<840k) on modest rebound after Fri's steep sell-off on stronger than expected jobs gains for July: +528k vs. +250k est, dip in unemployment rate to 3.5% while AHE gained 0.5%, a tenth faster than in June.

  • Week opens w/ modest squaring ahead of Wed's key CPI data. A moderate read for the inflation metric will continue to soften 75bp hike expectations while another hot read will see today's bounce reverse, most likely spurring chatter over an inter-meeting hike that saw FFQ2 trade 97.64 briefly, 3 bps above the current 233 EFFR.
  • Cross asset update: Stocks off midmorning highs/near steady (SPX eminis at 4144.0 -2.75, DJIA +62.95 at 32872.91); Spot Gold stronger +12.70 at 1788.21; Crude firmer (WTI +1.59 at 90.60).
  • Data on tap for Tuesday: Nonfarm Productivity (-4.6% est) and Unit Labor Costs (9.8% est), US Tsy $34B 52W bill and $42B 3Y Note auctions. Primary focus on Wednesday's CPI read for July: 0.2% MoM est vs. 1.3% prior, 8.7% YoY vs. 9.1% prior.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 0.6bps at 3.2198%, 5-Yr is down 4.4bps at 2.9112%, 10-Yr is down 6.6bps at 2.7609%, and 30-Yr is down 7.5bps at 2.9912%.
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